A call but no response - Bahrain's opposition reaches out

Work has been somewhat all-encompassing these last few days and consequently I have not posted anything on the Arabian Peninsula since last week. I am pleased to be back today with a (albeit brief) commentary on an Al-Jazeera news story, posted on their website today and concerning Bahrain.

Arial view of Manama, Bahrain

This morning Al-Jazeera reported that Bahrain's opposition seeks talks 'consensus'. According to the article, Bahrain's five main opposition parties have joined forces to detail the conditions which the Bahraini government must meet in order for the former to consider sharing a negotiating table with the latter. In a statement the opposition groups have specified that “any offer of dialogue requires consensus on its agenda, means, and duration in order to provide initial guarantee of its seriousness.” The opposition has expressly asked that the government include jailed former leaders of the opposition in the talks.

The fact that the five opposition parties have joined forces to draft these conditions of a meeting between themselves and the government should be seen as a positive step. Such a move shows both Bahraini's and the outside world that the country's opposition is suitably structured and mature to come up with measured concessions to progress with continued political developments. 

I sincerely hope that Bahrain's government has the sense to recognise this move as a positive step in its relations with the opposition. After all, despite the fact that the opposition has come to the negotiating table with some demands, their underlying message is that they want to talk. This is progress, and the Bahraini royal family would be foolish to snap this mini olive branch. 

Unfortunately I suspect that Saudi Arabia will not be so encouraging towards accepting this offer by Bahrain's Shia opposition and we should not ignore the House of Saud's hold over the Bahraini Sunni royals...and that makes Riyadh one of the biggest obstacles to progress in Manama. The optimist in me still hopes that Bahrain's royals will behave with an ounce of autonomy and accept the offer for talks.

My only word of advice to Bahrain's opposition is not to ask for too much too soon. Back in January I posted an article on this blog called "Bahrain's activists are right to ask for more...within reason" and I repeat the same warning now. Arguably the demand for jailed opposition leaders to be present at the talks is too much too soon, especially as for such a demand to be met the judiciary would be required to intervene. The danger with asking for too much is that the whole offer will be ignored, resulting in no response to the opposition's olive branch call. 

Let's hope that a little tempering of demands by the opposition and a little independent thinking from the government will result in the start of a meaningful dialogue between Bahrain's Sunni leaders and Shia opposition.   

Saudi and Bahrain - closing embassies and tweeting ministers

Today I read two news reports that Saudi Arabia and Bahrain have closed their embassies in Damascus. The articles can be found at Daily Press and the Jerusalem Post. Saudi Arabia quoted Asad's treatment of government opposition protestors as their reason for withdrawing their diplomatic representation from the country. Given the already poor state of relations between Saudi and Syria, I am not sure what difference this latest move will make other than to underscore that the two regimes do not see eye to eye.  

Interestingly, Bahrain's reason (as quoted in the Jerusalem Post) for shutting its embassy in Damascus is not a direct attack at Asad, but rather concerns the worsening security situation in Syria. I suspect a significant reason for Bahrain's action is that Manama has taken its lead from Riyadh  

Whilst the the Bahraini Foreign Minister is busy closing embassies, according to Al-bawaba Business, his minister colleagues are tweeting away.

Bahrain's ministers have been publicly encouraged to use personal twitter accounts in order to communicate better with the people. Considering that Bahrain has just been labelled as Enemies of the internet by Reporters without borders I find it interesting that days later the country’s ministers are being encouraged to behave like model social media users. I suspect the latter may be a direct result of the former. If so, Manama should realise that it is not ministers who should be taking encouragement to tweet, but rather the regime relaxing censorship and encouraging its citizens to tweet, and engage in other forms of social media.

Today's 4...Athletes, displacement, internet & hotels

The Daily Mail reported that Saudi Arabia may overturn their previous decision and allow women to compete in the London2012 Olympic Games. International Olympic Committee President Jacques Rogge has announced he is "confident" that Saudi will allow women to attend the sporting event. I am concerned this decision has come too late. With Saudi women banned from gyms since 2009 and still no confirmation of whether or not female contestants will be allowed to travel to London this summer I would be very surprised if Saudi's female athletes have been training sufficiently to reach Olympic standards. I wish the women of the closed Kingdom the best of luck in getting to London2012 should the decision be made in their favour.

Reuters AlertNet reported that civilian displacement in Yemen is increasing significantly due to tribal clashes in the north and ongoing violent struggles between the government and militias in the south. Such displacement is not surprising given the ongoing violence throughout the country. Nonetheless, this new challenge will be an unwelcome development for recently inaugurated President Hadi, who does not seem to be strong enough to deal with the current challenges. It is rumoured that the UN and USA are proposing aid provision to help the new President. Let’s hope they define their proposals before too long. It seems Hadi could do with some assistance.

CVT.ca reported on a recent study by Reporters Without Borders which singled out Bahrain as an "Enemy of the Internet". Bahrain is accused of clamping down on Internet freedom in response to the last year of anti-government protests on the small island kingdom, including media blackouts and harassing on social media users such as bloggers and twitter users. Whilst such behaviours are widespread throughout the region, I still find it saddening that regimes adopt such Dickensian measures to prevent the free flow of information.  

And finally...

Reuters reported that the Abu Dhabi will not issue any new hotel licenses until further notice due to over-supply. We have witnessed high-rise hotels shoot out the sand across the emirates of the UAE but now it seems there are too many. Some may see this as a sign that tourism is slowing down for the UAE, but I imagine it has more to do with the volume of hotels still under construction which has resulted in this decision.

A tale of two cities: Sanaa starves while Muscat thrives

Al Jazeera reported that the UN envoy to Yemen has warned of a potential humanitarian crisis in Yemen, the poorest country in the Middle East. The envoy has warned that circa 3million Yemeni citizens are in need of immediate assistance, of which 500,000 children are at serious risk of dying or suffering life-long consequences through malnutrition. When President Hadi came to power I commented that his greatest obstacle to reform is the country's lack of funds. Whilst this is still true, with the threat of malnutrition on the horizon, I think he should be more concerned about feeding the country before implementing reforms. Perhaps some of Yemen's wealthy neighbours could prove to the rest of the world that pan-Arab solidarity still exists by providing some much needed support to stricken Yemen. With Qatar now the wealthiest country in the world in terms of GDP per capita, perhaps they'd like to lead the effort?

In contrast, the website AME Info posted an article today to report on the ""Invest in the Sultanate of Oman" Symposium held in Bahrain. During the gathering, Oman has been complemented for its excellent investment environment. Only yesterday I posted a comment on the fact that an Omani private sector company currently has an tourism portfolio of over $2million for investments in the sultanate's thriving tourist industry. The proximity of Yemen and Oman merely highlights the huge gulf in terms of development and prosperity between the two countries. Whilst it will take years, indeed many decades, for Yemen to catch up with its prosperous neighbour, let's hope that one day the two countries will be more evenly matched. 

Today's 4...Tweets, tourism, talkies & titles



Twitter Arabic hails a new era in Middle East social media

 The BBC reported that Twitter is now available in 4 right-to-left languages, including Arabic. Obviously this impacts more than just the countries of the Arabian peninsula, but seeing as the countries of the Arabian Peninsula have dubious records at best when it comes to freedom of speech I imagine that this latest development is causing some concern amongst the peninsula's various corridors of power. It was one thing monitoring the tweets of those members of the population who could speak English or another European Language. It will be a much greater challenge now that twitter, a channel which arguably promotes free speech, is open to all those who can access a computer/smartphone. Globally, we have seen how powerful social media tools such as twitter can be as a call to arms (take the London riots of 2011 which took the Metropolitan Police completely by surprise: Twitter was a key tool in spreading the "riot" word.) The governments of the Arabian Peninsula and wider Arab world should not underestimate the potential impact of this latest twitter development. I think they'll regret it if they do.

The Times of Oman revealed that Oman's leading tourism related investment company declared that it's tourism-related portfolio of projects is currently worth $2billion. This tells us two things. First, considering this is the first news story I have quoted concerning Oman for at least a fortnight and considering that this was the best I could find today, it is clear that Oman's presence on the pages of the international press is still notable in its absence (I wonder if we'll start to read more now that Twitter Arabic is up and running?!). Secondly it tells us how seriously Oman is taking its tourism ambitions. There is clearly a strong sense throughout both the Omani private and public sectors that there is a sound future for tourism in the country. I think they may be right.

The Times of India reported that for the second time in 30 years a film has been shown publicly in Saudi Arabia. The film was called "Journey to Mecca" and was funded by the state. It was aired in the Hilton in Jeddah. The first film to be shown in 30 years took place in 2008, and whilst it was not a religious film, it was produced by Saudi billionaire, Prince Al-Waleed Bin Talal. I somehow think the showing of "Journey to Mecca" does not hail the start of the beginning of Saudi's cinema age. Instead, I think today's lesson is that the only way for films to be aired publicly in the closed Kingdom is for them to be funded  by the House of Saud, preferably with a religious focus. I don't think Sex and the City will make onto the Jeddah Hilton's projector screen anytime soon.

And finally

First it was Kuwait...now it's Bahrain. Today Gulf News reported that the Bahraini parliament's lower chamber is pushing for the island's government to ditch Asad and recognise Asad's opposition, the Syrian National Council, as the official representatives of the Syrian People. The debate is yet to reach a conclusion and I would urge Bahrain to avoid taking such a step. Whilst I fully acknowledge that Asad's regime is currently responsible for one of the greatest acts of tyranny in Syria's short history and that it should be stopped without delay, I take issue with foreign parties deciding on behalf of another country's people who their official representatives should be. Regretfully, Asad is still the Syrian leader. I am keen for him to be replaced by a new regime, but it is for the Syrian people to decide who that regime is. It is not up to Kuwait; it is not up to the lower house of the Bahraini parliament; it is not up to any government in the Arabian Peninsula, Arab World or globally. We should concentrate on stopping Asad, rather than adding a title which is essentially meaningless in the current Syrian context to Asad's opposition. 

Shootings & killings shrouded in mystery and bias

Today has been a rather long day so I have customised "Today's 4" again into a slightly shorter version. I'm sure we'll be back to our full 4 posts before too long...

Pictures of Dhaka

Al Jazeera reported that a Saudi diplomat posted to Bangladesh has been shot in Dhaka. The victim, who was the head of the Citizens' Affairs department in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's embassy to Bangladesh, later died in hospital. 


The article does not allude to whether the shooting was an accident of whether there are more sinister undertakings at work.


I plan to keep a beady eye on this particular story, especially on the reaction from Saudi Arabia


The Tehran Times  reported that a Bahraini child has been killed by tear gas fired from government forces. At this point I should stress that this is deeply moving. However, I do have to criticise the way in which the Tehran Times chose to report the story. The opening paragraph begins: 

"Another Bahraini infant has died from asphyxia after inhaling poisonous tear gas fired by Saudi-backed regime forces in the capital, Manama."

The tone then continues in the same way throughout. It is very interesting to read Tehran's view on the situation in Bahrain. Personally, I feel Tehran might convince a more informed audience to follow their perspective by adapting a more subtle approach to biased news reporting. 

Today's 4...Unions, defence, property & raids

After a long weekend away in the Netherlands I am now back in London so it's back to "Today's 4..."



The GCC Emblem

 AFP reported on the recent meeting between King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia and King Hamad of Bahrain to discuss "union" plans between their two countries. I have no further details at the moment regarding this "union" but AFP suggest it is likely to involve greater intelligence and military cooperation between the two countries. If Saudi Arabia is capitalising on its influence over the Bahraini regime, it is likely Riyadh will look to the other members of the GCC to set up ties. Are we about to see the GCC emblem shining brighter than the national flags of the GCC states? I doubt it. I think this is more a case of Saudi Arabia flexing its self-aggrandised muscles. Let's keep an eye out here.  


MSNBC reported on the continuing war of words between Riyadh and Damascus. In a rare televised appearance, the Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal accused Asad's regime of "imposing itself by force" on the Syrian people (well observed Saud) and stated that the Syrian people had a right to use force to defend themselves against Asad's guns, describing self defence as a basic human right. As I have said time and time again, comments such as these are fine, but as long as Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf States fail to support their concerned mutterings with affirmative action such comments are essentially useless. What's more, it is interesting to hear the Saudi Foreign Minister talk about basic human rights. Do you think he has heard of the expression people in glass houses shouldn't throw stones? 


Cranes cranking up again in Dubai

Select Property reported on the upturn in the Dubai property market.  In a bold headline, the property website screamed "Dubai property market surges in 2012". Apparently investors are turning back to real estate investments, particularly focusing on Dubai where they believe markets have bottomed out leaving huge potential returns on investment. Perhaps we are about to witness a spectacular second-wind for Dubai. Let's see.
And finally

The Guardian reported on the recent raids by al-Qaeda militants in southern Yemen which has left 100 Yemeni soldiers dead. The raids took place on military bases in the country's Adyan province and are reportedly a response to President Hadi's pledge to tackle head on al-Qaeda's Yemeni branch. In response, Hadi has reiterated his commitment to fighting al-Qaeda in Yemen, labelling it as one of his top priorities. I wish Hadi luck, as I believe asserting his control over rival tribes and dissidnt groups including al-Qaeda is a vital early step if he is to succeed in getting the country out the mess handed to him by Saleh.

Today's 2...Restrictions & rapprochements

I'm still on holiday so it's another "Today's 2..." today. "Today's 4" will be back next Monday.

Fatima al-Balooshi

Al Jazeera reported that Bahrain has formally requested the UN to delay sending a torture inspector to Manama until July. The visit was originally scheduled from March 8 to 17. This is not the first time Bahrain has interfered with planned visits from independent observers and restrictions on visits by rights groups continue. Bahrain's minister for social development, Fatima al-Balooshi said that Bahrain has learned lessons from the last year of anti-government protests. On behalf of the regime, she admits that "Mistakes were made. Serious wrongs were committed [but that she] believes [they] are on the right track." Surely if al-Balooshi is confident that Bahrain is taking steps in the right direction, then why the request to delay the UN torture inspector's visit? Bahrain's request for the UN to delay their visit makes certainly makes it seem that Bahrain has something to hide. 

Egypt Daily News reported that Saudi Arabia's recent efforts to strengthen efforts with Iraq are part of the Kingdom's anti-Asad stance. The article argues that efforts from Saudi, such as sending their first ambassador to Baghdad since before the 1990 Gulf War are fuelled by a desire to undermine Tehran by currying favour with Iraq's Shias. Whilst I agree that Saudi must surely want to steal some of Iran's influence in Iraq, I do not see how this directly impacts Asad's regime in Syria. Arguably, if Syria were not in the midst of a bloody internal conflict, Riyadh would be courting Damascus with the same efforts they are throwing at Baghdad. It will take Riyadh years and years to overtake Tehran in terms of level of influence over the Shia population of countries such as Iraq and Syria. In fact, I doubt Saudi will probably ever achieve this goal. As such, I can't see an obvious link between sending a Saudi Ambassador to Iraq and Saudi's anti-Asad stance. If the Egypt daily news would like to propose a more robust argument, I'd be willing to hear it!

Today's 2...9/11 & transition

I'm on holiday for the next couple of days, so am reverting to a reduced post of "Today's 2..." Don't worry (I know some of you were panicking), "Today's 4..." will be back in earnest next Monday. In the meantime, don't forget that you can keep up to speed with the blog via our Facebook page.


So, for here's Today's 2...

Bob Graham

Bob Kerrey

The New York Times reported that two former US senators, Bob Graham and Bob Kerrey (both democrats) have claimed that top secret information on Saudi activities suggests that the Kingdom may have played a "direct role" in the September 11th attacks. Bob Graham states his point clearly: "I am convinced that there was a direct line between at least some of the terrorists who carried out the September 11th attacks and the government of Saudi Arabia". In response to Graham and Kerrey's claims, the US State Department has made it clear the relationship between Washington and Riyadh has not been compromised by the remarks, nor have joint US-Saudi counter-terrorism efforts. We should keep our eyes on this one. Whilst King Abdullah's immediate entourage have a strong relationship with the US, there are numerous second and third tier princes who sit on the sidelines under the radar of the Abdullah's inner circle. I'm not sure the Saud regime can be entirely sure of all their activities. 


The Australian reported on the transition of power from Saleh to Hadi in Yemen. The article takes a celebratory tone, commenting on how the recent handover ceremony took place without major incident. The article's tone is full of optimism at Saleh's exit and the mutterings of reform coming from Camp Hadi. This positive tone contrasts to the initial concerns that the state of the Yemeni economy would provide an unnavigable blockade to reform for Hadi. I say let's give Yemen's new president a chance.