Where next for Yemen.

Today I came across a photo-feature in the the New York Times which tells a troubling story of Yemen. Entitled Where next for Yemen, the journalist expresses concern that over the last two years since Saleh was replaced by Hadi very little has changed. The capital Sana'a just about functions, but the areas outside the city are riddled with sectarianism from a plethora of different varied forces. 

Presidents past and present, but Saleh is still stealing the limelight

Earlier this week Yemen featured in the international press as the UN threatened former president Saleh with sanctions if he continues to meddle in the country's affairs through his network of proxies, built up over the course of his thirty year premiership. Meanwhile, President Hadi is branded as a shy man, notable in his absence from public life. 

This is a troubling situation. The optimists speak favourably of the transition of power in Yemen, contrasting Saleh's step down to Asad's current course of self-destruction in Syria (not to mention the destruction of the country and its people). Meanwhile the realists are rightfully concerned. 

Yemen is an historically complex tribal patchwork. When I visited the country in 2007 supporters of Saleh spoke favourably of his ability to stitch the patchwork into a quilt that functioned, almost to a level acceptable in the developed world. 

Whilst I am always pleased to see the end to a despot's rule, I am worried that Saleh's skills of uniting the tribal leaders have not been passed on to Hadi. What's more, I believe that Hadi's lack of skills in this area is exacerbated by his allies in the "developed" world who are attempting to encourage "western-acceptable" democracy.  What the country really needs is a leader who can broker tribal cooperation. 

The sooner we realise this the better. Hadi needs to be left to govern Yemen in a way fit for the unique foundations of the country. I fear that the longer the current path continues, the slimmer the chance of this happening. 

Don't let the sun go down on Saudi

Today I stumbled upon an article about Saudi Arabia which produced a little flutter of excitement in me. Mildly progressive policy towards women aside, this does not happen very often when reading news about the Kingdom. So what is this wonderful and exciting development, I hear you say? The answer: a headline on the website of United Press International which reads: Sign of the times: Saudi goes solar. The article reports that "Saudi Arabia, the world's leading oil producer, has completed its biggest solar power plant as the Persian Gulf petro-powers increasingly turn to solar energy and other renewables".

The Saudi empty quarter - lots of sand and sun

Actually, on second thoughts, let me replace my previous excitement with a sigh of aah - finally! I have often worried about Saudi Arabia's forward planning. With a quarter of the world's known oil reserves under their sand and soil it still amazes me that the Saud's do not boast the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world. Instead this accolade passes between far more canny states, including Abu Dhabi, a close neighbour and sometime topic of this blog. 

Now is not the time to go into the reasons for Saudi's lack of saved sovereign wealth (this has got me thinking that I should post about Saudi Arabia and the concept of a Rentier State). But I will say how nice it is to see Riyadh taking steps to plan for the future! Saudi Arabia plays host to the largest sand desert in the world (see picture for an idea of what a lot of sand looks like), known as الربع الخالي‎ or A-rub al-Khali, or The Empty Quarter - approximately 650,000 sq kms of sand, with an awful lot of annual sunlight, and tremendous potential as a powerful source of solar energy. 

As Saudi Arabia has made a conscious decision to ignore all history prior to the advent of Islam in AD 622, there is little post-Islamic history in the Empty Quarter which will be damaged by some solar farms. I for one would like to see Saudi Arabia become a hub for renewable energy. The optimist in me hopes that if the country is involved in progressive and modern energy policy, this could infiltrate the archaic politics of this extraordinary Kingdom. So, to paraphrase the great Sir Elton: don't let the sun go down on Saudi.

Another year passes

February 14 2013 marks the 2 year anniversary of the start of the uprisings in Bahrain. Unsurprisingly, the lead up to the anniversary has featured a series of public demonstrations, in spite of current "legislation" banning public protests. Of course, it comes as no surprise that the legislation designed to drive Bahrain's Shia opposition from the streets has failed. The only realistic way to enforce such a law would have been to round up all the country's politically active Shia and lock them up - a ridiculous idea, although I'm sure the thought has crossed the government's mind. 

In fact, not only has the anti-demonstration legislation failed, but the al-Khalifa's seem to be left with no alternative but to admit that it has failed, by organising talks, currently taking place, between the Sunni leadership and the various factions which make up the Shia opposition. Such a contrast between the quasi-despotic legislation and the practises being undertaken by the authors of the law hardly presents the al-Khalifas as strong in the face of two years of open opposition and protest. 

If I were to take my "old" line of argument I would say that continued protests are now a serious cause for concern to both the al-Khalifas and the House of Saud, and almost certainly due to Iran's masterful puppetry. 

Bahrain's King looks justifiably concerned

I now don't think the above statement is true. Allow me, momentarily, to second-guess King Abdullah's thoughts and I'd say that he's probably just as fed up with the al-Khalifas' inadequacies as we are and that he probably wouldn't be averse to regime change, so long as it happens in an orderly manner. Yes, such a change in regime may cause a stir among Saudi's Shia ranks, but nothing that couldn't be controlled. 

Now, if we sail across to the other side of the Gulf, to Iran, I wonder if Ahmadinejad is as hung up about Bahrain as the international press would have us believe. As one source told me, Iran is not bringing arms into Bahrain so their only constant source of influence is over the television transmissions which reach Bahrain from Iran.

So with Saudi and Iran arguably not as interested in Bahrain as I had previously thought, what can we conclude about the Bahrain uprising's winners and losers 2 years on? I'd say that the real loser here is Bahrain's ruling al-Khalifa family who, as another year passes, have taken to yo-yoing policies of desperation to maintain control. We should watch the next year very closely. 

AQAP...WTF

First of all, apologies for the radio silence. I have been busy getting my head around a new job so rather lost momentum with blog posts. Last month was a great month for Arabian Peninsula Focus, with our best ever day of hits (87 in one day!). Thanks to all those who have a read every now and then.

So what is today's post about? Well, it is inspired by a France24 news article entitled "Drone kills top Qaeda cleric in Yemen". The article details a drone attack which killed Sheikh Adel al-Abab, al-Qaeda's top cleric in the Arabian Peninsula. The drone attack almost failed, with a second shot required to dispose of the cleric as he escaped from his burning car.   

A while back I wrote about the increasing role of US-controlled drones in Yemen. It seems that the frequency of these attacks remains high. What can we read into this? At a high level it suggests the following:

- President Hadi, despite his successes in certain areas of Yemeni administration, is struggling to dampen the influence of al-Qaeda in Yemen. 

- The USA remains increasingly concerned about the lack of internal ministry control in Yemen and the free-ride this provides to al-Qaeda network members to grow in strength. 

I cannot see Hadi winning the flight against the terrorist network on his own and therefore predict continued swarms of US-controlled drone attacks in the almost failed state. 

As a brief closing note, I have to say that I found myself chuckling at an acronym which cropped up throughout the France 24 article: AQAP (al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula). Although this may sound catchy, it is in fact completely superfluous as an acronym - one might say an acronym for acronym's sake! 

If Bin Laden is seen as the founder of Al-Qaeda and we accept that Bin Laden was Yemeni/Saudi then hasn't it always been an Arabian Peninsula-based network that then spread further afield? I guess that we are now in the Acronym era of uncontrolled abbreviations. TLAs (which stands for three letter acronym for those unfamiliar with this acronymous acronym) have clearly been exhausted. Bring on the FLA era! 

In the spirit of fighting fire with fire, there is only one correct response to AQAP: WTF! 

The donor conference is underway

Just a short post today as I wrote a longer-than-usual post yesterday on the future of Bahrain.

Some of you may have read a post earlier this month (Kuwait leads action against Asad) about Kuwait hosting a donor conference to secure aid for Syrian refugees. Today I read a Financial Times article reporting on the conference which is now underway. Entitled Donors pledge more aid to Syria, the article reports that the summit has so far resulted in $600million from Kuwait and the UAE, and a further $300million from Saudi Arabia.

I hope that these will not be the only financial aid commitments from the Arabian Peninsula countries over the coming days. For once, I think competition amongst the countries of the Arabian Peninsula for recognition as THE Pan-Arab leader may be a good thing as aid pledges from once country in the region could be met with higher pledges from surrounding states, eager to be seen as Pan-Arab supporters. I do hope I'm right as the UN report that up to $1.5billion is required to support the 750,000 refugees and 4 million Syrians still in the country.

On the one hand, it is good to see Kuwait make good on its promise to organise a donor conference, and indeed, even better to see that the conference seems to be generating the desired results. That said, the FT journalist does raise a serious concern that the aid, once pledged, is taking way too long to arrive on the front line where it is most required. This is clearly the next challenge. So come on countries of the Arabian Peninsula...if one of you really wants to be seen as a Pan-Arab leader then step up and start helping with the complicated task of dishing out the millions of dollars you can so easily afford to pledge.

A fresh perspective on Bahrain

Last week I had dinner with a friend who has just ended a five year work placement in Bahrain. During our dinner the conversation turned to Bahrain and its future. I hold my friend's opinions in the highest regard, so I was particularly interested to hear his thoughts on the future of Bahrain. He certainly provided me with a fresh perspective on the future of the island.

At a high-level, my friend made me realise that my stand point, which is also the "traditional" line of argument (Iran meddles in Bahrain, Saudi meddles in Bahrain, Bahrain = satellite battle ground for the Iran and Saudi power struggle) may be out of date. In the past I have argued that Saudi will do everything in its power to prevent the Bahraini Shia majority from usurping power from the Sunni ruling family and government. Saudi has a small concentration of Shia residing in the eastern province and with a Shia government in power just across the causeway into Bahrain (see photo below), the Saudi Shia population could be mobilised against King Abdullah in Saudi Arabia.



The King Fahd Causeway links Bahrain to Saudi Arabia


Would this really happen in reality? My friend argues not. He believes that Saudi is much more in favour of a politically stable Bahrain. Yes, a Sunni government would be preferable to a Shia leadership but the current, weak Sunni al-Khalifa rulers are not at all preferable.

The next question we discussed over dinner was to what extent the Bahraini Shia population is really supported by Iran. I have previously argued that Iran is surely meddling on the ground in Bahrain, but my friend challenged me on this. He argues that the Iranians are almost certainly not arming the Shia in Bahrain as the Gulf is tightly patrolled for shipping traffic coming from Iran and there is no other route to Bahrain. It seems the only direct route from Iran to Bahrain is via satellite television. Bahraini Shia all watch Iranian television so there is at least some scope for Ahmaninejad to transmit rabble rousing messages to Bahrain. Whilst this shouldn't be underestimated, it should also not be assigned the same impact as the intricate, armed Iranian spy network that some believe operates in Bahrain.

The other question we discussed was the impact of a Shia uprising in Bahrain on the Saudi Shia population. My friend's point here was simple. Saudi Shia comprise a little over 10% of Saudis population and they are all located in one place. Should they be rabble-roused by a future Shia leadership in Bahrain, it is unlikely that King Abdullah would not be able to control this. He would also receive international support if it looked as if Saudi was losing control.

As I listened with great interest to my friend's fresh perspective on Bahrain I came to a new conclusion, a conclusion with which my friend also agreed: in the event of Bahrain's Shia taking control of the small island and ousting the al-Khalifas King Abdullah would be best advised to travel across the causeway to greet the leaders as friends and neighbours. Such an act would surely take the wind out of Ahmadinejad's sails!?

I particularly enjoyed hearing Bahrain's story from a different angle. What are your thoughts on this fresh perspective on Bahrain?

Oman: as perfect as the travel brochures suggest?

As some of you may know I often make light of the fact that Oman rarely appears on the pages and websites of the international press. I thought today was no exception. The first couple of headlines I read were about the lack of potential parking issues at a Muscat amphitheatre (fascinating - really).

Then I came across a headline which read: Oman seeks to cut expat workforce. This made me stop and have a read.

The article reports that Oman could soon adopt a similar path to Saudi Arabia, and introduce limits to the number of expat employees hired by sector companies. (On a point of information, this is not strictly true - Saudi Arabia has actually introduced a far more complex system, which rewards private sector companies who employ x number of local employees by making it significantly easier to gain visas for expat workers).

On the one hand you may ask why this is significant news. Well, my response is to ask why the Sultan of Oman feels it is necessary to take the step of reducing the number of expat workers, currently dominating the country's private sector. The obvious answer is that there is a growing problem with unemployment. Some stats I have found support this, with the International Monetary Fund stating that up to 20% of the population is unemployed, which has led to street protests. I have read nothing of these street protests during my almost daily checks on news from the Arabian Peninsula, which leads onto further questions about the strict levels to which important news is kept out of the headlines. It seems the Omani press sensors have been busy.

I will now scour Omani news even more closely than before...I suspect all may not be as rosy as the travel brochures would have us believe.