Monday 18 February 2013

Where next for Yemen.

Today I came across a photo-feature in the the New York Times which tells a troubling story of Yemen. Entitled Where next for Yemen, the journalist expresses concern that over the last two years since Saleh was replaced by Hadi very little has changed. The capital Sana'a just about functions, but the areas outside the city are riddled with sectarianism from a plethora of different varied forces. 

Presidents past and present, but Saleh is still stealing the limelight
Earlier this week Yemen featured in the international press as the UN threatened former president Saleh with sanctions if he continues to meddle in the country's affairs through his network of proxies, built up over the course of his thirty year premiership. Meanwhile, President Hadi is branded as a shy man, notable in his absence from public life. 

This is a troubling situation. The optimists speak favourably of the transition of power in Yemen, contrasting Saleh's step down to Asad's current course of self-destruction in Syria (not to mention the destruction of the country and its people). Meanwhile the realists are rightfully concerned. 

Yemen is an historically complex tribal patchwork. When I visited the country in 2007 supporters of Saleh spoke favourably of his ability to stitch the patchwork into a quilt that functioned, almost to a level acceptable in the developed world. 

Whilst I am always pleased to see the end to a despot's rule, I am worried that Saleh's skills of uniting the tribal leaders have not been passed on to Hadi. What's more, I believe that Hadi's lack of skills in this area is exacerbated by his allies in the "developed" world who are attempting to encourage "western-acceptable" democracy.  What the country really needs is a leader who can broker tribal cooperation. 

The sooner we realise this the better. Hadi needs to be left to govern Yemen in a way fit for the unique foundations of the country. I fear that the longer the current path continues, the slimmer the chance of this happening. 

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