On 30 December, Al-Jazeera International reported that 5 Bahraini police officers are to be tried for the alleged torture of an anti-government protestertor who later died in their custody. The Bahraini government has made a point of highlighting that the trial is part of their committment to a "zero tolerance" approach towards abuse of political detainees.
The article also reported that another group of detainees will be tried next month, accused of having links to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and of planning attacks on sites including the Saudi Arabian embassy in Manama and the King Fahd Causeway which links Bahrain with Saudi Arabia.
I am not surprised to hear that there are alleged links between Bahraini anti-government protesters and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. For as long as Bahrain's majority Shia population is ruled over by a Sunni royal family, Iran will continue to foster anti-government sentiment on the tiny island. For Iran, Bahrain is an ideal stepping stone between them and Saudi Arabia, the land of the Two Holy Cities of Mecca and Medina over which Iran believes the House of Saud has no legitimate claim to control. The Sunni royal family is the largest obstacle for Iran to publicly utilise this stepping stone. I fully expect next month's trial to find guilty the Bahraini group accused of links to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
Whilst Iran continues to bolster anti-government sentiment amongst Bahraini Shias, the House of Saud will continue to support the Sunni royal family, as we saw in March 2011 when Saudi troops entered Bahrain to help quell Bahrain's contribution to the "Arab Spring". For Saudi Arabia, it is vital that Bahrain remains in Sunni control to act as a buffer against Iran's meddling, not least because almost all of Saudi Arabia's Shia population (circa 15% of the Kingdom's total population) are located in the Eastern Province, right where the King Fahd Causeway connects Bahrain to the Saudi mainland.
With continuous meddling from both Saudi and Iran, Bahrain has become the unfortunate bone over which the two regional giants continue to fight.
As with any good fight, we should ask who is currently in the lead? Referring back to the Al-Jazeera article, it seems to me that Iran has scored a temporary victory over its Saudi nemesis. I would argue that the the Bahraini policy of "zero tolerance" against violence to political detainees represents a form of retreat on the part of the Bahraini Al-Khalifa royal family, and their Saudi sponsors. This becomes clear if we compare Bahrain to Syria, where the al-Asad regime's response (which undoubtedly comes with Iranian backing) to anti-government protestors has been so tough that it has outraged observers from around the world.
Why aren't the Saudis able to provide the same support to the al-Khalifa regime, thereby allowing for a similarly tough response in Bahrain? The answer is because Iran has played on Saudi's insecurities regarding upsetting their own population of Shias. After all, it is not only Saudi's Shias which are located in the Eastern Province. It is also the home of Saudi's oil fields - their most important source of wealth and power.
I will watch the outcome of the two upcoming trials with interest. Should the Sunni Bahraini royal family declare their own forces guilty of torturing a Shia citizen, Iran can pat themselves on the back for winning the latest battle against Saudi Arabia. However, the delicate sectarian balance, so easily upset, will ensure further wrestling matches take place in Bahrain, the giants' playground.
Pithy!
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