Monday, 16 January 2012

Bahrain's activists are right to ask for more...within reason


On 15 January Al-Jazeera reported that the Bahraini King has proposed constitutional reforms which include:

“"new safeguards" to limit [the King’s] ability to dissolve the lower house of parliament. [...]The reforms would also require Khalifa to issue a "royal order" explaining the process for appointing members of the Shura Council, the 40-member upper house, which is entirely appointed by the king. Parliament would also play a larger role in determining the state budget.”

I have no doubt that the King’s announcement has come as a response to the prolonged unrest on the island kingdom and highlights that the Sunni Khalifa ruling family has run out of options for resisting the country’s shia majority anti government protesters. The announcement is a cause for celebration for Iran and a second consecutive victory for Iran over Saudi Arabia in the battle for dominance over Bahrain. (see Bahrain: the giants’ playground)

Al-Jazeera reports that, immediately following the announcement of reforms, Bahraini anti government protesters started grumbling that the reforms are merely “cosmetic”, are too minor and ultimately show that progress is too slow. The activists are right to demand more but they should also be reasonable. They should analyse the speed of Bahraini reforms in a Bahraini rather than a global context and in doing so they will see that the proposed reforms mark a move in the right direction by the island’s King.

In other words, Bahraini activists are right to ask for more but should adopt more realistic timelines. At this point, a couple of clichés spring to mind: Rome wasn’t built in a day and don’t run before you can walk, both of which are relevant to this situation. In fact, that Bahraini reforms are likely to constitute baby steps rather than giant leaps is no bad thing. Over-ambitious and over-hasty reforms are far more likely to result in a backlash after which the kingdom could become locked in a cycle of grand reforms followed by corrective measures to appease opponents of the change. Instead, if the activists adopt an approach of persistence coupled with patience we may just see them come out on top.

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