Today's 4...Representatives, domination, determination & potential

Kuwait decide on Syria's leaders

The Lebanese Daily Star reported that today the Kuwaiti government voted in favour of recognising the opposition Syrian National Council (SNC) as the legitimate representatives of the Syrian People. To a certain extent this is a symbolic gesture which will have little impact on the plight of the Syrian people in cities such as Homs. However, it does make official Kuwait’s decision to halt economic ties with Damascus, as now that Kuwait no longer recognises Asad’s regime as leading Syria, Kuwait is obliged by its own laws to break all ties with Asad. I would argue that Kuwait has been a little hasty in selecting the SNC as the official leaders of Syria. The SNC has not been voted in by the Syrian people, and consequently Kuwait has bypassed an essential step in the diplomatic process. It may well be that the SNC oust Asad from power permanently, but that is for Syria to decide...not Kuwait.

Construction Week Online (a new source for this blog!) reported that Qatar has been ranked as the world's wealthiest country in a new list compiled by US magazine Forbes. Qatar’s 1.7 million are the richest in the world, with an estimated GDP per capita of more than $88,000. Other Arabian Peninsula countries to make it onto the rich list are the UAE which was placed 6^th (estimated GDP  $47,439 per capita) and Kuwait which was placed 15th (estimated GDP of $38,775 per capita). Construction Week Online cite a “rebound in oil prices and its massive natural gas reserves” as the principle reason behind Qatar’s elevation to the top of the list. Allow me to adopt a mildly jocular tone at this point...This latest development, coupled with Qatar’s hosting of the World Cup in 2022, their bid for the 2020 Olympics, their global investment in sustainability projects and emphasis on investing for the future suggests more strongly than ever that Qatar is about to take over the world. Get ready readers, Doha will be your new capital city before you know it.

This is now becoming a standard agenda item on Today’s 4 but I have to provide an update on former Yemeni president Saleh’s latest retirement decisions. Yesterday I quoted a CNN article which said Saleh was off to Addis Ababa for now, but may relocate to Muscat should he feel so inclined. Today, CNN reported on the words of a Saleh spokesman who stated that Saleh is determined to see out his retirement in Yemen, and has no plans to move on. Unsurprisingly, this announcement has provoked a backlash from Yemeni citizens who have flocked to Saleh’s hometown to call for him to be arrested and/or to demand he leaves Yemen. Clearly some see him as a criminal while others see his presence in the country as an obstacle to progress. If I were you Saleh, I’d cut my losses and get out before some disgruntled countryman decides to take my fate into his own hands...Addis Ababa may not look quite so unattractive after all.

And finally...

The Middle East North Africa Financial Network reported that a German State Minister has become excited by the huge potential for green initiatives in Saudi Arabia. There is just one flaw to his plan...Saudi Arabia. So far the closed kingdom has shown little appetite for sustainable investing / investing for the future especially compared to the efforts of its neighbours from Qatar and the UAE. That said, I think the German minister is right highlight the potential sustainable energy opportunities in Saudi as this will add to international pressure on Saudi to take advantage of natural resources other than oil. One of the biggest resources is surely sunlight. I am no scientist, but there must be a way of utilising the circa 650,000 square kilometres which makes up Saudi’s empty quarter, especially as this areas receives almost 365 days a year of clear blue skies. I am doubtful, but wouldn’t it be great if the German State Minister’s efforts have stirred the interest of his Saudi counterpart?

Today's 4...Athletes, retirement, words & judgements

There be will no Saudi female athletes at London 2012

The Guardian reported that former UK Olympics Minister, Tessa Jowell has accused Saudi Arabia for lacking in Olympic spirit by not sending a single female athlete to London for the 2012 Olympic Games. 2 Years ago the Saudi government forbade women for entering gyms. Tessa Jowell comments suggest that she is surprised by Saudi Arabia to keep their female athletes at home. When I was in Riyadh in 2007 it was illegal for women to travel outside the country un-chaperoned, or without the express permission of a close male relative. Taking this into consideration, even if there was female representation on the Saudi Olympic team, the women on the team would be decided not by sporting ability alone. Instead, the level of freedom granted to these women by their male guardians would be a major factor. Sadly, I think this is also not in line with the Olympic spirit. In fact, for Saudi to fully contribute to the fostering of the Olympic values, they would need a complete, bloodless and speedy regime change. I think we can all agree that this is unlikely.

CNN reported that, after returning to Yemen to formerly hand over power to Hadi, Saleh will now leave Sanaa for Ethiopia. Yesterday  I expressed an interest in how long Saleh will stay in Yemen, and it appears the answer is not long. CNN report that the Yemenis themselves are keen for Saleh to leave as they see his presence as a barrier to change. Saleh's departure is a big moment for Arabian Peninsula Focus as I have been talking about his retirement destination almost since the blog's inception. However, the journalists at CNN are preventing me from drawing a complete line under this discussion point as an aid close to Saleh has reportedly said the former President is undecided as to whether to go to Oman or Ethiopia. It seems Addis Ababa is a temporary stopping ground before the final decision is made. As I said before, I don't think Oman's Sultan will be particularly keen to welcome Saleh to Muscat. If I were him, I'd unpack my bags for good in Addis Ababa.

Kuwait News Agency reported that, in a speech to a Special United Nations committee on Syria, Kuwait has called for all possible means to stop the humanitarian disaster in Syria. Kuwait's announcement against Asad's regime is the third  announcement in as many days against the Syrian dictator to come from Arabian Peninsula countries. Sadly, rather just like the two announcements which came before, Kuwait were typically vague about where the "means" to stop Asad will come from. I've said it before and I'll say it again...this rhetoric needs to be enforced with action. Over to you Kuwait.

And finally...

Reuters AltertNet reported that Bahrain should drop trials against "doctors and leaders of last years protest movement". The article states that the trials, which are taking place in civilian courts, are flawed as the judges are too politically motivated to be objective in their verdicts. However, the article does point out that the Bahraini government are taking steps to reset the balance in the police and judicial system. This is a hugely challenging undertaking. On such a small island Kingdom, everyone has been impacted by the last year's demonstrations in some way. I am not criticising the Bahraini government for trying to remove bias from their midst, but I do think it is an unrealistic goal to achieve.

Today's 4...Handovers, fear, resignations & rhetoric

Saleh waving goodbye

Al Jazeera reported that today a ceremony took place in Yemen's capital, Sanaa in which former President Saleh officially handed over power to new President Hadi. Saleh congratulated his former vice president on winning the (uncontested) election (all irony intended). I was particularly interested to read Al Jazeera's article, particularly as the last I read about Saleh's movements were that he was heading Addis Ababa. Apparently I was wrong. I would be surprised if he stays in Yemen full-time from now on. Watch this space.


In a very interesting feature article,  The Guardian highlights how Saudi Arabia is an ideal location for the next iteration of the Arab Spring. The article provides ample evidence as to why the closed Kingdom has caused sufficient dissatisfaction amongst its citizens for them to want to rise up against the House of Saud. The Guardian journalist argues that fear from the brutal regime has so far silenced an Egyptian style uprising. I would argue that there are other significant elements, which go unmentioned in the Guardian. In political science, the concept of the "rentier state" states that if citizens are provided with a certain way of life (no taxes, government allowances etc) by the ruling regime, they are less likely to rise up against their rulers. Essentially, the oppressive ruler becomes a vital source of income. This is certainly true of many of the citizens in Saudi and should not be dismissed as a reason why the Saudi people have not risen up against their rulers.


The Financial Times reported that the head of Bahrain's sovereign wealth fund, Mumtalakat has resigned. Talal al-Zain has left to set up his own financial services company. Publicly, Zain has insisted he remains loyal to Bahrain's sunni royal family and that the year of unrest on the small island kingdom has nothing to do with his decision to step down. Perhaps he is speaking the truth, but I am going to let out the cynic inside me and argue that he is stepping down as an act of opposition against the ruling regime. 


And finally...

Sheikh Hamad is getting tough 

The Financial Times (again) reported that Qatar has joined the calls for the arming of Syrian rebels fighting against the regime of Asad. Qatar’s Sheikh Hamad announced that, following Russia and China's decision to vote against a UN Security Council resolution demanding an end to violence in Syria, the Arab world has a responsibility to support the Syrian rebels in any way they can. These are bold words from the Qatari leader, and I would not be surprised if he does not follow through on this strong rhetoric. Qatar is currently working night and day to become a world centre for sport, culture and research and investment for the future. I don't think that taking controversial and affirmative action against Asad would not be in line Qatar's long term policy of cultural and sporting global domination. 

Today's 2...Yemen optimisitc & Saudi outspoken...but is either enough?

It being a Saturday I have decided to post a "Today's 2..." rather than a "Today's 4...". That said, I will be going into a little more detail than usual in my comments below. If there are any fans of "Today's 4..." (lots, I'm sure...ahem) then never fear as the feature will be back in full on Monday. For now, here's Today's 2:

Al Jazeera reported on the positive mood in Yemen following the transition of power from Saleh to Hadi. So far, my comments about the "elections" in Yemen has been rather damning. I stand by my critique of the fact that the elections were uncontested, but that doesn't mean I am underestimating the significance of Yemen's first change of leader since the country's formation in 1990. Indeed, for those Yemenis who were citizens of the former state of North Yemen, this is their first new leader since 1978.

Clearly Hadi's presidency is the start of a new era for the troubled country, and the feeling of optimism is not only justified but should be encouraged. However, the Al Jazeera report wisely brings its readers down to earth by highlighting that in order to bring the country back to its feet significant investment is required, and Hadi's new government notably lacks the financial capability required. Arguably this means that Hadi's easiest option being "more of the same" rather than the implementation of some much-needed reforms.

Given the resource constraints of Hadi's government, both Yemenis and international observers should not expect major changes to take place overnight. However, I'd actually argue that Hadi's inability to implement swift reforms is not a bad thing. After all, his presidency is not universally supported (as we saw in the localised violence in the run up to the "election"). Dramatic and hasty reforms would undoubtedly provoke equally dramatic and hasty responses from the Hadi opponents, with the serious risk of Yemen spiralling back into violence.

So let's hope that Yemen's new president plays his cards sagely throughout his time in office (which could be lengthy). I certainly don't want to see no change, and as Al Jazeera reported, I don't think he has the resources for swift change. This leaves only one other option: careful, considered and gradual reforms to bring the country back on its feet. Good luck Hadi. I, for one, want you to succeed.

And secondly...

The Washington Post reported that Asad's regime in Syria has publicly lashed out at Saudi Arabia after the Saudi foreign minister backed the idea of arming the Syrian rebels fighting against Asad's regime. Asad used a state-run newspaper to accuse Saudi Arabia of supporting the killings in cities such as Homs.

Saudi's Foreign Minister
Saud bin Faisal bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud

Riyadh's verbal support arming Syrian rebels represents another low-point in Saudi-Syrian relations, which have deteriorated in recent months. Coupled with Kuwait's recent expulsion of the Syrian Ambassador from Kuwait City, and recall of their own representatives from Damascus, it is clear the Gulf is gradually waking up to the need to stand up to Asad. But is it too little, too late?

The answer is simple: yes. For some time on this blog I have highlighted the need for affirmative action to bring an end to the violence in Syria. Concerned comments are well and good so long as they are occasionally followed through on. Referring back to the Saudi Foreign Minister's words, it is interesting to note that, whilst he supports the idea of arming Syrian rebels, he makes no commitment for Saudi Arabia to actually help implement this idea. I'd be very surprised if such a commitment happens.

When Asad's action against his own people is so extreme, it's time we start asking some basic questions:

• Will Kuwait's expulsion of Syrian diplomats from Kuwait City save lives in Homs? Unlikely.
• Will Saudi's support of the idea of arming Syrian rebels help save lives in Homs? Unlikely
• Will Saudi's implementation of the above idea help save lives in Homs? Quite possibly, as it will strengthen the resistance against Asad and could force him into calling a ceasefire.

For me, the fact that the Saudi foreign minister got an almost immediate response out of Syria by suggesting he supports arming the rebels is a sign that this is something Damascus is genuinely worried about. By publishing the backlash at Saudi in the Syrian state newspaper, Asad has exposed his concerns - a stronger, better equipped resistance.

I sincerely hope that Riyadh has taken note of the implications of Damascus' response. Saudi Arabia is a country which likes to think itself the leader of the Arab World. Now's the time to prove it.

Today's 4...Relations, princes, severance & retirement

Middle-East-Online.com reported on warming relations between Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Last week I mentioned that Saudi is sending an ambassador to Iraq for the first time since the Gulf War of 1990, and today Middle-East-Online commented that a delegation of senior Iraqi officials have visited Saudi Arabia. These warming relations are good news, and provide a refreshing contrast to the recent refusal of Bahrain and other GCC countries to attend an Arab League summit in Baghdad. Although I do wonder if these warming relations have anything to do with the Shia uprisings Saudi's Eastern Province? Is the Saudi Royal Family trying to send a more positive message to their minority Shia citizens? Let's wait and see.

Abu Dhabi and Charles go for green

Arabianbusiness.com reported that the Abu Dhabi backed Islamic investment fund has joined forces with Prince Charles, heir to the British throne to launch a $100m green energy venture in the UK. The venture will be led by Lord Rothschild's investment trust RIT Capital Partners and Fajr Capital. Sainsbury's supermarkets which are part owned by the Qatari Investment Authority have also backed the venture.

Ahramonline.com reported that Kuwait's parliament speaker and 4 other Kuwaiti members of parliament have called for Kuwait to cut all economic agreements with Syria. This comes after Kuwait expelled the Syrian Ambassador in Kuwait and recalled its own representatives from Damascus. Let's hope that it will have some impact on reducing Asad's brutality against his own people. I am not optimistic. I think the events of the past months have shown us that it will take more than sanctions to stop Asad in his tracks.

And finally...

CNN reported that Saleh has finally left the USA after travelling there for medical treatment prior to the uncontested elections which saw him replaced by his former vice president Hadi. Previous news articles suggested Saleh would return to Yemen for the elections and inauguration of Hadi as president. This has clearly not happened. Saleh is rumoured to be heading for Addis Ababa, Ethiopia and I suspect this was not his first choice retirement venue. Interestingly, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton described the recent election in Yemen as  "another important step forward in their democratic transition process." It is interesting that she should describe a succession which involved an uncontested election and power passing from president to vice president as a step towards democracy. I suspect what Clinton really means is that, from a US perspective, it is a relief that Hadi has taken power rather than some unknown character. Better the devil you know - right Hillary?

Today's 4...Vetoes, property, participation & spring

Waving goodbye to talks with Russia...

The website ArabianBusiness.com reported that King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia has told Russian President Dmitry Medvedev that dialogue between Saudi Arabia and Russia is "useless" following Russia's vote against the UN resolution calling for an end to violence in Syria. The Saudi king criticised China and Russia for not coordinating with the "Arab stance" towards Asad's regime. Of course, King Abdullah may have been more accurate if he'd added the word "Sunni" to "Arab stance" in this instance...

PropertyShowrooms.com reported that sales of Dubai property are picking up, especially amongst local and domestic investors who believe that the emirate's property market has now hit rock bottom. According to Cluttons, real estate transactions increased by 64% in the final quarter of 2011, thanks in part to the return of accessible financing. What with people moving back and businesses relocating to Dubai to avoid the domestic political troubles in nearby Gulf states, it seems the (near) future's bright for Dubai.

Al-Jazeera reported that this week's uncontested elections in Yemen had an overall (official) voter turnout of 60%. To put this in context, the contested UK general election of 2010 achieved 65% voter participation throughout the UK. Considering that the Yemeni election had a foregone conclusion and voters were threatened with violent attacks on polling stations in the south of the country this figure is amazing. Of course, we should exercise some scepticism in the 60% as it is an official figure, but even if it were 40-50% this is still noteworthy. The Yemenis have certainly taught us in the UK (and other democratic countries globally) that we should turn out to our contested elections in greater droves than we currently do.

And finally...

Gulf Daily News reported on comments made by a senior member of the British Army, Lt. General Lamb. Lamb argues that to categorise activities in Bahrain under the term "Arab Spring" is misleading. He states that countries where there is "systematic, state-sponsored abuse of its own people" such as Syria, Libya and Tunisia, (and not Bahrain), fall better into the Arab Spring category. I would never state that the situation in Bahrain is similar in brutality to that of Syria or the final months of Gaddafi's Libya. However, I do think it is somewhat blinkered to ignore the international context of Bahrain's anti-government protests. To that end we cannot write-off Bahrain as being a part, albeit less brutally than others, of the "Arab Spring".

Bahrain and Syria shooting...to score

I am not a football lover. Nor am I a football hater. I am indifferent but I never thought I'd write a post about football. However, there is a first time for everything and today is my first post about football.

Yesterday, when I was perusing the headlines for "Today's 4" content I stumbled upon an article entitled "Bahrain gear up for Syria clash". Instinctively I thought this sounded like the Bahraini royals were planning on accusing Asad's Shia regime of provoking anti-government demonstrations in Bahrain, (Bahrain regularly accuse Iraq and Iran of the same crime, with some justification) and that such an accusation had lead to a diplomatic clash.

But to my pleasant surprise the headline actually belonged to the sport pages of the Gulf Daily News website. Glancing over the article, I soon realised that today, 22 February 2012, Bahrain's under 23 football team take on their Syrian counterparts in a qualifier for the London 2012 Olympic Games. Being a qualifier game, the article emphasises the importance of the Game and what the teams have been doing in the past 48 hours to prepare for the match.

Considering the current situation both within and between the two countries, I cannot express how refreshing it is to read an article about Syria and Bahrain which does not focus on the two countries fractious relationship. And it certainly is a fractious relationship. The two countries are sectarian opposites: Syria is ruled by a brutal Shia minority regime with allegiances to Iran and would like to see an end to Sunni rule in Bahrain. Bahrain is ruled by a strict minority Sunni regime eager to retain power in the face of continued Shia uprisings...uprisings which undoubtedly receive support from Iran and by association Asad's regime in Syria.

Despite all these reasons for discord, I found an article yesterday in the sport pages of the Gulf Daily News website which mentioned none of this. There was one subtle implication of tense relations when the article mentioned efforts to ensure cooperation between the Bahraini and Syrian football associations, but arguably such cooperation between FAs is not guaranteed when any two international teams meet for a qualifier, regardless of their political relationships with one another. 

Instead of focusing on street battles in Damascus and Homs or demonstrations and arrests in Manama, the article talked of preparing for battles on the grassy pitch, with eager fans demonstrating their support in the stands of the Riffa Stadium.

I for one will be celebrating this occasion where the only shooting between the Syrian and Bahraini sides will be shooting to score.

Today's 4...Farewells, barrels, relocations & booze

Yemen's new President Hadi

Al-Jazeera (amongst others) reported that voting had concluded in Yemen's uncontested presidential elections. I suppose there are benefits to only having one candidate, one of which is no need for laborious vote counting and subsequent delay to announcing the results. Congratulations President Hadi on your resounding victory.

Bloomberg BusinessWeek reported that Oman (the largest Oil producer not  in OPEC) will signed contracts with 4 companies (not mentioned in the article) in a move which will see further increases in its oil output. In 2011, the number of barrels produced increased by 4.4% from 2010. It seems that the sultanate has bold ambitions to continue this growth.


The Financial Times Blog commented that the Arab Spring has been great for Dubai's financial district, which has seen new arrivals from financial houses previously located in trouble-struck places such as Bahrain. ABN Amro Asset Management and Nomura are two of the new faces in Dubai. As more and more countries in the region pass their “Arab Spring 1st Anniversary” marker, it seems the real winners and losers are starting to emerge. Watch this space for a more detailed commentary later on this week. 

And finally...
 
The Guardian reported that the recent ban on alcoholic beverage consumption on Doha’s Riviera has severely impacted the most affluent area of Qatar’s capital. Restaurants and hotels have been the hardest hit, with one waitress (perhaps a little melodramatically) declaring the ban “the end of the world”. Armageddon it is not, but bad for business it certainly is. Managers at high end restaurants and boutiques are reporting a circa 50% drop in sales since the ban. If this continues, I suspect the ban may be revoked as suddenly as it was implemented.    

Today's 4...Elections, envoys, activists & (dis)unions

Al-Jazeera reported that Yemenis have flocked to the polling station throughout today to vote for Vice-President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi as Saleh's successor. Despite being an uncontested election, voters did turn out, quoting religious duty as the main reason for casting a vote. Whilst attacks on polling stations have increased in recent days, Al-Jazeera did not report any attacks taking place today.

Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia is to send an ambassador to Iraq for the first time since the Gulf War of 1990. Reuters reported this as a positive move in Iraqi-Saudi relations, which have been strained since Shia Iraqi Prime Minister al-Maliki took power. I am more inclined to think that increasing Iranian influence in Iraq has provoked Saudi into sending "their man" to be present on site. 

The BBC reported that Zainab al-Khawaja (pictured left) a leading Bahraini pro-democracy activist who was arrested last week for attending protests to mark the anniversary of the Bahraini attempts to join the Arab Spring, has now been released from prison. Al-Khawaja was outspoken following her release. Whilst she did not claim she had been mistreated in custody, she publicly declared that she will not give up her quest for democracy on the small island kingdom.

And finally...
 
Al-Arabiya News reported that the speaker of the Kuwaiti parliament has rejected the possibility of a political union between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states. Interestingly he cites a lack in freedom of speech as one of the main reasons:

"It is, for example, very difficult for a country like Kuwait that grants freedom of speech and where people are represented in parliament to form a union with countries whose prisons are full of thousands who are guilty of speaking their minds.”

Could this be a case of misrepresentation? I am not sure that Kuwait are quite so squeaky-clean.

Today's 4...Blasts, fists, Olympics & drugs

Al-Jazeera reported that a bomb exploded amidst gun fire at a polling station in Aden one day before Vice-President Abd Rabbou Mansour al-Hadi asks for Yemen to vote him in as the new President of Yemen in an uncontested election. This does not bode well for Yemen's acceptance of the new leader. Tomorrow will be an important day to watch.

Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia's interior ministry have vowed to end with an iron fist the violence in the Eastern Province (which houses almost all of the country's Shia population). Considering the violence in this instance has been caused by the Saudi's policy of marginalisation towards the country's Shias, the Sauds would be wise to consider a less forceful approach to resolving this issue.

The UK's Daily Mail reported that Qatar have announced they will bid to host the Summer Olympic and Paralympic Games of 2020 in Doha. In order to avoid competitors performing in the extreme heat of a Qatari August, the bid suggests holding the Games in October. With the World Cup in 2022, it seems Qatar is hoping for the 20s to be their year of sport.

And finally...

Gulf News reported that a Pakistani national entering Oman through Muscat international airport has been arrested after he attracted the eye of the Royal Omani Police. An x-ray of the man showed that he had swallowed 134 capsules of illegal drugs. It is hardly a surprise that he looked somewhat uncomfortable on his way through customs.

Today's 4...Interference, ex-pats, waste & paving

Bloomberg Business Week have run posted an interesting feature article on escalating tensions in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia. The article highlights the liklihood of Iranian meddling in the Kingdom's oil producing region. The article has close links with a previous post on this blog about Saudi Shias in the Eastern Province

AFP reported that Bahrain has deported 6 US nationals for illegal participation in the pro-deomcracy demonstrations which are sweeping through the country. It is very interesting to see that involvement in the demonstrations is now stretching to ex-pats.

The Khaleej Times reported that Dubai is joining the "green" efforts which are gradually increasing in frequency throughout the Arabian Peninsula. The article reports that "residents and their maids" will be asked to segregate household waste in an attempt to faciliate recycling.

And finally...

Gulf News Reported that the Emirate of Sharjah is to pave sandy roads in residential areas. It is particularly interesting to see the comparative lack of development in Sharjah compared to its bigger brothers Dubai and Abu Dhabi. This latest move does highlight that Sharjah is making efforts to catch up.

Today's 4...Anniversaries, beheadings, bloggers & Al-Qaeda

Al Jazeera reported on the heavy police presence in Bahrain following an outbreak of protests in Manama and its outlying villages on the one year anniversary of the pro-democracy protests that have rumbled on in the small island kingdom since. To some extent, the current surge in protests can be attributed to the anniversary, but mostly the recurring demonstrations reiterate the sense of frustration towards the ruling regime which prevails throughout the country

RTT news news reported that a Syrian man and a Saudi man have been beheaded for drug trafficking, bringing the total number of beheadings in the Kingdom this year to 8. It is a sombre reminder of the scale of conservatism in the ultra-strict kingdom.

Gulf News reported that the ccontroversial Omani blogger Muawiyah Al Rawahi has been released after 10 days in custody. Interestingly, Al Rawahi denied being captured by security forces and claimed he went to them of his own accord. He will not give out any further information. This sounds a little suspect to me. I suspect that ahead of his release he was heavily primed on what he could and couldn't say.

And finally...

Boston.com reported that Yemeni troops have killed 12 al-Qaeda militants in Zinjibar, South Yemen. 2 Yemeni soldiers also died in the attack. The action signifies a mini-victory for Yemen in re-gaining control of Zinjibar but also highlights the scale to which al-Qaeda militants are embedded throughout the country.

Today's 4...Tourists, petrochemicals, smoking & shares

Arabian Business reported that Oman has announced its plans to attract 12 million tourists a year by 2020. Considering the Omani 2010 census suggested the sultanate's population was just under 3 million, this would be an amazing achievement. Perhaps some of the tourists heading in Oman's direction will be brave enough to pop over the border into Yemen, which is arguably more beautiful and, violence aside, makes a wonderful tourist destination.

Qatar has also set itself a goal for 2020, although not one which concerns tourists. The Wall Street Journal reported that Qatar will build a $5.5 billion petrochemical plant in the northern industrial city of Ras Laffan by 2018. Qatar is making a significant effort to utilise its gas reserves, which are currently the 3rd largest in the world and plans to more than double its petrochemical production by 2020.

The Kuwait Times reported that all forms of smoking have been banned in "most" public places (the article is a little vague as to where exactly). Interestingly, the ban includes the smoking of sheesha in public. I will watch to see if the Kuwaitis are as good at adhering to the smoking ban as the French are at ignoring theirs...

And finally...

The Khaleej Times reported that Dubai’s shares have reached an all-time high after its benchmark index rose to the highest in more than six months after Drake & Scull International posted better-than-forecast earnings and Greek lawmakers passed a plan to avert default. This will be welcome news to the financially troubled emirate.

Saudi Shias: the Sauds should keep their enemies closer

Today the BBC reported that a Saudi Arabian Shia protester was shot dead during clashes with police at a protest march on Friday. Apparently a police intervention at the march lead to a number of the protesters opening fire against the police who responded with counter-fire which killed a protester.

The march was taking place in the Qatif region located in Saudi's Eastern Province and was made up of Shia protesters who were calling for an end to sectarian discrimination in the kingdom.

Saudi Shias, who constitute approximately 15% of the otherwise Sunni country, frequently complain about feeling marginalised from Saudi society. Saudi Shias are officially denounced as heretics or non-Muslims (school text books describe Shi'ism as a form of heresy worse than Christianity or Judaism,) and 21st century publications of Wahhabi Sunni Muslim literature have even sanctioned the killing of Shias. It is therefore hardly surprising that Saudi Shias' feel marginalised. They are second class citizens in a country which houses two of their most important religious cities.

However, considering the House of Saud's tough stance in all aspects of government, their treatment of the kingdom's Shia population is no different from the norm. But is this policy of Shia marginalisation a wise one? The following facts would suggest not...

Circa one fifth of the world's know oil reserves are located in Saudi Arabia. Almost 100% of Saudi's known oil fields are located in the country's Eastern Province, which is also home to almost 100% of the country's marginalised Shia population. Last year the IMF predicted that Saudi oil revenues for 2011 would approach $324 billion. In short, the disgruntled Shias in Saudi Arabia are sitting on one of the world's largest liquid gold mines, and the vital source of income to the ruling regime. Disrupting this revenue would have major consequences and would severely impact the House of Saud's ability to govern and control the country.

In a post-Arab Spring Middle East, the risk of a Shia uprising in Saudi Arabia is significantly higher than before Tunisia kicked out President Ben Ali in January 2011. When Bahrain's Shias began their journey down revolutionary road they brought the Arab Spring right to the doorstep of the House of Saud, and the fact that Saudi responded by sending troops into Bahrain to help the stricken Sunni minority leadership is evidence of how concerned the Sauds were at the situation. However, as we continue to see on a daily basis in Bahrain, the threat of unrest is by no means a thing of the past.

Saudi Arabia are in a very tricky situation, not least because Iran is undoubtedly doing all it can to cause maximum disruption to the House of Saud via its Bahraini moles. The House of Saud's response to a potential Shia uprising in the Kingdom has been characteristically harsh, and includes the banning of any form of public demonstration. I would argue that today's report by the BBC that demonstrations are taking place in spite of this law is a clear sign that the law and other harsh measures against the Kingdom's Shias are not working. In fact, this tough stance is most likely fuelling Saudi Shias' sense of discontentment and increasing, likelihood of an uprising.

So what to do? Saudi's Shias have historically settled in what is now the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia. The fact that they have remained in the same location despite years of marginalisation by the House of Saud and despite the fact that several nearby countries (Iran and post-Saddam Iraq to name two) would welcome them screams to me that Saudi Shias don't actually want to go anywhere. It makes more sense for the House of Saud to put sectarian differences aside and allow the country's Shia population the full rights currently bestowed to their Sunni counterparts.

Of course the obstacle here will be the country's Sunni religious elites. It is highly unlikely that they will ever accept a Shia as an equal. But if these religious elites wish to continue to benefit from their astronomical share of that $324 billion (or more in 2012?) they may just have to buy into that well-known cliché - keep your friends close, but your enemies closer.

Today's 4...Blasphemy, power, logistics & nukes

The BBC reported that a Saudi twitter user has been detained in Kuala Lumpur following his posting of a controversial tweet about the Prophet Muhammad on the Prophet's birthday last week. Hamza Kashgari posted:

"I have loved things about you and I have hated things about you and there is a lot I don't understand about you. I will not pray for you".

Blasphemy can be punished by death in Saudi Arabia. If Kashgari is extradited back to Saudi he will certainly face trial.


Al Jazeera reported that Yemenis are urging Saleh supporters still in positions of power to step down ahead of the upcoming elections. Many of Saleh's close relatives, such as his half brother who commands the country's Air Force still control significant offices throughout the country. I can understand why the Yemeni people are asking for team-Saleh to move out. Without them moving on it is impossible for the country to move on.

The News Tribe reported that Britain and Qatar have been providing logistics support to armed groups in Homs who are fighting Syrian government forces. Should this be true, it shows a slight difference between the official stance of "no intervention in Syria". I for one think it's reassuring to think that certain countries in the international community are starting to take affirmative action to support the Syrian people.

MSNBC reported that Saudi Arabia have announced they will rush to acquire nuclear weapons if Iran successfully tests an atomic bomb. Saudi confidence in their ability to lay their hands on nuclear weapons strongly implies an agreement between the Sunni Kingdom and her western allies to provide arms in the case of an nuclear capable Iran. Given that Reuters reported on a Maple Croft paper which labelled Saudi as the least stable country of the developing world, I think we should all be concerned at the prospect of a Nuclear Saudi Arabia.

R.I.P Arab Nationalism



Arab Nationalism is, at its most simple, an essentially secular ideology which calls for political union in the Arab World. Many see Egypt's Nasser as presiding over the ideology's high point after which it has failed to reach the same levels of belief throughout the region.

In my Today's 4 post earlier today I commented on the The Kuwait Times report that Kuwait has cancelled the concerts which form part of its annual festival "February Nights" as a sign of solidarity for the Syrian people suffering under Assad. Since reading the Kuwait Times article, this has got me thinking about Arab Nationalism, and what the crisis in Syria tells us about the current state of the ideology: is it dead or alive?

In Today's 4, I argued that Kuwait's cancellation of the February Nights concert series is no more that a "nice gesture". Having reflected further, I am not even sure it is a "nice gesture", but rather an utterly useless stunt which aims to clear the consciences of Kuwait's leaders. Perhaps Kuwait made the move in the name of some form of Arab Nationalism, but if the ideology was really still alive isn't more affirmative action required?

This is not the only example of the Arabian Peninsula countries making merely a superficial move in the name of solidarity for the Syrians. Saudi Arabia's early exit from the Arab League's Observer Mission in Syria, closely followed by the GCC's exit highlighted that the countries of the Arabian Peninsula are willing to pay lip service to supporting other Arab nations but that when the going gets tough, the GCC get going...out...fast.

What the current crisis in Syria is showing us is that the circa twenty countries of the Middle East and North Africa are far more influenced by their own, individual foreign and religious allegiances, both within the Middle East and globally.

In short, the current crisis in Syria is a great acid test by which to ascertain if Arab Nationalism is dead or alive. Arab Nationalism should transcend the Sunni-Shia divide and it should transcend the question as to whether one Arab country has China's, Russia's or any other "superpower's" ear. Similarly, if there was any form of political union, Bahrain would not be refusing to attend Arab League conferences in Baghdad (see previous post) at a time when Syrian civilians are losing their lives by the thousands in Homs.

So, Arab Nationalism appears to be well and truly dead. Whether it will someday be brought back into the land of the living seems highly unlikely but not altogether impossible. I for one will continue to look at events through the Arab Nationalism kaleidoscope to try and spot any sign of a revival.

For now though, it's R.I.P Arab Nationalism.

Today's 4...Elections, bloggers, concerts & prisoners

AFP reported that Yemen's sole presidential candidate, Vice President Abdrabuh Mansur Hadi has begun his campaign ahead of the upcoming elections. This is sad news. With the vice president as the only candidate to replace Saleh, surely this is more a succession than an election. It marks another setback for Yemen's journey to any form of democracy.

The Gulf News has reported that controversial Omani blogger Muawiyah Al Rawahi has been detained since writing an "antagonistic post" on his widely-read blog. In a past post on this blog I commented that headline news from Oman rarely makes it into the international press. The disappearance of Al Rawahi suggests one worrying reason as to why so little news escapes from the sultanate.

The Kuwait Times reported that Kuwait has cancelled the concerts which form part of its annual festival "February Nights" as a sign of solidarity for the Syrian people. A nice gesture, but the families in Homs are going to require a little more than some disappointed would-be-concert goers to bring an end to their plight. It is time for some affirmative action and if the Arab world really does believe in any sense of Arab nationalism then they should lead the charge.

The BBC reported that 2 jailed human rights activists in Bahrain have been released. They were jailed last year for supporting the anti-government demonstrations on the tiny kingdom. It is another example of the Bahraini Governments softening response to anti-government protesters

Today's 4...Expulsions, uncertainty, canines & bins

The BBC reported that the GCC have reached an agreement for Gulf states to expel Syrian ambassadors from their respective countries. Whilst predominantly a symbolic measure, hopefully it will add to increasing global pressure on Assad’s brutal regime.

Gulf News reported that the Emirate of Sharjah has adopted a blue and green bins imitative to help households in their recycling efforts. The UAE have come late to the recycling table but we have now seen a couple of recycling/sustainability stories emerge from the country. Is a trend beginning to emerge? 

Bloomberg quoted the risk management consultants, Maplecroft who have labelled Saudi Arabia as most risky of Emerging Economies. Maplecroft state that the future stability of the despotic kingdom is uncertain. I have to agree. The Saudi population will not tolerate forever the dictatorship under which they live. 

Emirates 24/7 commented that a recent attack on poodle by American Staffordshire Terrier has kicked stared a movement against “dangerous breeds” in Dubai. It seems the Hound of the Baskerviles has some middle east cousins...

Today's 4...Hamas, protests, finance & driving

The Khaleej Times reported that the Kuwaiti Emir met with the Hamas Gaza chief as an expression of support regarding the rebuilding of Gaza. It is refreshing to see that some world leaders are prepared to recognise that Hamas is a democratically elected party and shouldn't be ignored.

Gulf news reported that riots almost started in Oman both in favour and against the Syrian tyrant Assad. It was swiftly broken up by effective police commandos. It must have been a rare flurry of excitement for the country's keepers of the peace.

The Financial Times reported that the Qatar Financial Centre (QFC) has hired UK veteran asset manager Bob Wigley to join the QFC. Qatar hopes the move will entice other fund managers to set up in the country. Is Qatar trying to fight Bahrain and Dubai for the title of Middle East Financial Capital?

And finally...

Fox News reported that Saudi women are challenging the government's ban on women driving. Arabian Peninsula Focus formally wishes them good luck in their plight. Watch this space for a more detailed article later in the week.

Today's 4...riots, sustainability, voting & motorways

The BBC reported that in the Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province, police have arrested nine Saudi Shias for violence against the Saudi authorities in mid January. We should watch closely to see if the rest of the Kingdom's Shia population react to the arrests. 

The ONA (Oman News Agency) announced the start of the Oman Social Responsibility and Sustainability Conference. The conference goal is to "reach the future of social responsibility in the companies in the Sultanate and the neighbouring countries". This is ambitious in the case of Saudi Arabia

Reuters reported that election preparations have begun in Yemen. Some Yemenis have stated that they see the election as a waste of time and money. Who can blame them when they have had the same apparently democratically elected president for the last 33 years. 

And finally...

Gulf News reported that local and international bids have been invited for a contract to build a motorway linking Abu Dhabi and Dubai. Benefits include easing day to day traffic whilst also allowing Dubai's leaders to drive to Adu Dhabi with greater ease the next time they need to ask Abu Dhabi for a financial bailout.

Bahrain blocks the road to Baghdad

Yesterday, Gulf news reported that Bahrain will skip the Arab League summit planned to take place in Baghdad on 29 March 2012. Saudi Arabia and the GCC have also commented that holding an Arab League summit in Baghdad would be "impossible." So why has the Arabian Peninsula taken such a strong stance against heading to Iraq for the summit?

It seems that Bahrain has been more candid in its reasons for refusing to go to Baghdad than Saudi Arabia and the GCC. Bahrain's foreign minister openly cited his displeasure with Iraqi interference, accusing Iraq of giving Manama  "problems day after day." This must have been a reference to Bahrain's suspicions that Shi'ites from outside the small island kingdom are encouraging the continued anti-government unrest in Bahrain. With Iraq's Shia prime minister Nouri al-Maliki seen by some as Tehran's stooge it is unsurprising that Bahrain has declined his invitation.

Saudi and the GCC have been a little less frank in their reasons for not wishing to head to Baghdad in March. Their refrain is that Iraq will not be ready to host the Arab League until stability is restored in the region. This is a weak justification. It could take decades for "stability" to be restored throughout the Middle East, and such stability is not going to be achieved faster by refusing to travel to certain countries. I believe this statement is actually a smokescreen. It is far more likely the GCC and Saudi's refusal to attend an Arab League summit in Baghdad is much the same as Manama's: neither wants to be the guest of al-Maliki.

Importantly, Bahrain, Saudi and the wider GCC's decision is a clear reminder of the delicate sectarian balance which continues to underpin the countries of the Arabian Peninsula and wider Muslim world. The Arab League, a supposed symbol of unity for Arab countries, is similarly plagued by the Sunni - Shia divide. The decision to continue with or cancel plans for the Mach 29 Baghdad summit will represent a victory for one side or the other. If the Arabian Peninsula's reaction is anything to go by, the outcome is likely to favour the Sunnis. On this occasion, it seems that Bahrain's decision not to attend the Baghdad summit and the subsequent echoes of concern throughout the Arabian Peninsula will block the road to Baghdad.

Today's 4...Summits, emissions, tribes & Cezanne

Gulf News reported that Bahrain will not attend the Arab League Summit planned for 29 March 2012 in Baghdad. Saudi Arabia and the other GCC countries have also expressed concern about the summit being hosted in Iraq. Watch this space - there will be a longer post on this tomorrow.

Gulf News also reported that Abu Dhabi plans to attempt a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by developing greener "more walkable" communities. They may be able to design and build communities to promote walking, but will that be enough to change the flash car culture which prevails in the UAE?

Al Jazeera reported that in Yemen members of the Houthis tribe, a rival tribe to that of outgoing president Saleh, are gaining power in the Yemeni city of Saada. Clearly Saleh's opponents are wasting no time to reset the country's power balance while Saleh is on his way out of office.

The Telegraph reported that the Qatari royal family has paid £158.4m for a Paul Cezanne painting, the largest sum ever paid for a piece of art. Yet another step in Qatar's efforts to develop a regional culture hub, which seems to consist of more imported European culture than promote the culture of the region itself.

Today'a 4...Islamists, sieges, protests & Tigers

Al-Jazeera reported on the landslide victory of the Kuwaiti Islamist opposition party. Kuwait experienced anti-government protests in December, and it seems that the opposition Islamist party have been quick to take advantage of the dissatisfied population.

Al Arabiya news reported that the face of outgoing Yemeni president Saleh has been reinstated at the top of the country's newspaper "Al-Thawra" after Saleh loyalists laid seige to the newspaper's headquarters after they tried to remove it. I'm sure Saleh will feel somewhat relieved to know that some of his population are looking forward to his return from the USA.

Reuters reported that Bahraini police were forced to break up a protest led by majority-Shia citizens who are taking every available opportunity to pressurise the Sunni government into bold reforms. It seems there is no let up for the Bahraini royal family.

Bettor News (blog) reported that Tiger Woods lost to Robert Rock in the Abu Dhabi Golf Championships this week, disappointing fans. Who knew that the desert emirate would become the host of a global golfing tournament? It appears that miracles can happen!

Today's 4...elections, markets, forgiveness & gas

The Kuwait Times reported that 400000 Kuwaitis have registered to vote in today’s parliamentary elections. Those who turn out to vote will be asked to vote for their preferred back benchers (with top positions reserved for members of the ruling al-Sabah family). Will the "Firestarter" from the Fourth Constituency come out on top?

The National highlighted that yesterday’s markets within the UAE showed opposite trends, with the Emirati capital Abu Dhabi’s markets rising in the face of another closing day fall for Dubai. Perhaps we will see more Dubai landmarks being named after Abu-Dhabi’s al-Khalifa royal family?

AFP reported that in Bahrain staff fired during the unrest are now being re-hired. The authorities are clearly learning that if swathes of people from a small island kingdom are fired almost simultaneously, there is no one else other than the very same resources who are able to plug the gap. Bahrain’s anti-government protestors must be toasting yet another victory.

The Tehran Times reported that Oman are to get Iranian Gas in a recent agreement between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Sultanate of Oman. It seems Iran’s influence over Saudi’s neighbours continues to grow.