Saudi Shias: the Sauds should keep their enemies closer

Today the BBC reported that a Saudi Arabian Shia protester was shot dead during clashes with police at a protest march on Friday. Apparently a police intervention at the march lead to a number of the protesters opening fire against the police who responded with counter-fire which killed a protester.

The march was taking place in the Qatif region located in Saudi's Eastern Province and was made up of Shia protesters who were calling for an end to sectarian discrimination in the kingdom.

Saudi Shias, who constitute approximately 15% of the otherwise Sunni country, frequently complain about feeling marginalised from Saudi society. Saudi Shias are officially denounced as heretics or non-Muslims (school text books describe Shi'ism as a form of heresy worse than Christianity or Judaism,) and 21st century publications of Wahhabi Sunni Muslim literature have even sanctioned the killing of Shias. It is therefore hardly surprising that Saudi Shias' feel marginalised. They are second class citizens in a country which houses two of their most important religious cities.

However, considering the House of Saud's tough stance in all aspects of government, their treatment of the kingdom's Shia population is no different from the norm. But is this policy of Shia marginalisation a wise one? The following facts would suggest not...

Circa one fifth of the world's know oil reserves are located in Saudi Arabia. Almost 100% of Saudi's known oil fields are located in the country's Eastern Province, which is also home to almost 100% of the country's marginalised Shia population. Last year the IMF predicted that Saudi oil revenues for 2011 would approach $324 billion. In short, the disgruntled Shias in Saudi Arabia are sitting on one of the world's largest liquid gold mines, and the vital source of income to the ruling regime. Disrupting this revenue would have major consequences and would severely impact the House of Saud's ability to govern and control the country.

In a post-Arab Spring Middle East, the risk of a Shia uprising in Saudi Arabia is significantly higher than before Tunisia kicked out President Ben Ali in January 2011. When Bahrain's Shias began their journey down revolutionary road they brought the Arab Spring right to the doorstep of the House of Saud, and the fact that Saudi responded by sending troops into Bahrain to help the stricken Sunni minority leadership is evidence of how concerned the Sauds were at the situation. However, as we continue to see on a daily basis in Bahrain, the threat of unrest is by no means a thing of the past.

Saudi Arabia are in a very tricky situation, not least because Iran is undoubtedly doing all it can to cause maximum disruption to the House of Saud via its Bahraini moles. The House of Saud's response to a potential Shia uprising in the Kingdom has been characteristically harsh, and includes the banning of any form of public demonstration. I would argue that today's report by the BBC that demonstrations are taking place in spite of this law is a clear sign that the law and other harsh measures against the Kingdom's Shias are not working. In fact, this tough stance is most likely fuelling Saudi Shias' sense of discontentment and increasing, likelihood of an uprising.

So what to do? Saudi's Shias have historically settled in what is now the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia. The fact that they have remained in the same location despite years of marginalisation by the House of Saud and despite the fact that several nearby countries (Iran and post-Saddam Iraq to name two) would welcome them screams to me that Saudi Shias don't actually want to go anywhere. It makes more sense for the House of Saud to put sectarian differences aside and allow the country's Shia population the full rights currently bestowed to their Sunni counterparts.

Of course the obstacle here will be the country's Sunni religious elites. It is highly unlikely that they will ever accept a Shia as an equal. But if these religious elites wish to continue to benefit from their astronomical share of that $324 billion (or more in 2012?) they may just have to buy into that well-known cliché - keep your friends close, but your enemies closer.