Bahrain blocks the road to Baghdad

Yesterday, Gulf news reported that Bahrain will skip the Arab League summit planned to take place in Baghdad on 29 March 2012. Saudi Arabia and the GCC have also commented that holding an Arab League summit in Baghdad would be "impossible." So why has the Arabian Peninsula taken such a strong stance against heading to Iraq for the summit?

It seems that Bahrain has been more candid in its reasons for refusing to go to Baghdad than Saudi Arabia and the GCC. Bahrain's foreign minister openly cited his displeasure with Iraqi interference, accusing Iraq of giving Manama  "problems day after day." This must have been a reference to Bahrain's suspicions that Shi'ites from outside the small island kingdom are encouraging the continued anti-government unrest in Bahrain. With Iraq's Shia prime minister Nouri al-Maliki seen by some as Tehran's stooge it is unsurprising that Bahrain has declined his invitation.

Saudi and the GCC have been a little less frank in their reasons for not wishing to head to Baghdad in March. Their refrain is that Iraq will not be ready to host the Arab League until stability is restored in the region. This is a weak justification. It could take decades for "stability" to be restored throughout the Middle East, and such stability is not going to be achieved faster by refusing to travel to certain countries. I believe this statement is actually a smokescreen. It is far more likely the GCC and Saudi's refusal to attend an Arab League summit in Baghdad is much the same as Manama's: neither wants to be the guest of al-Maliki.

Importantly, Bahrain, Saudi and the wider GCC's decision is a clear reminder of the delicate sectarian balance which continues to underpin the countries of the Arabian Peninsula and wider Muslim world. The Arab League, a supposed symbol of unity for Arab countries, is similarly plagued by the Sunni - Shia divide. The decision to continue with or cancel plans for the Mach 29 Baghdad summit will represent a victory for one side or the other. If the Arabian Peninsula's reaction is anything to go by, the outcome is likely to favour the Sunnis. On this occasion, it seems that Bahrain's decision not to attend the Baghdad summit and the subsequent echoes of concern throughout the Arabian Peninsula will block the road to Baghdad.