Oman's Sultan has ruled for 42 years. But who's next?

Sultan Qaboos of Oman

Oman's Sultan, Qaboos bin Said al-Said, is 72 years old. He and his wife,  Sayyidah Nawwal bint Tariq have no children and the ageing sultan has not publicly stated his preference for an heir. Given the wider context of the "Arab Spring", when Sultan Qaboos eventually dies the currently uneventful country could be in for some domestic turbulence.

Interestingly, constitutionally Qaboos has done nothing out of the ordinary by not announcing his preferred heir. Article 6 of Oman's constitution states that the Ruling Family Council chooses the successor after the throne becomes vacant. The previous sultan's preference should be noted in an official letter and referred to only in the event that the Ruling Family Council fails to achieve consensus in choosing the new heir. Qaboos claims he has already written and sealed his letter and given it to the defense minister.  

Constitution aside, history tells a different story. Qaboos' predecessor was his father (removed from power in a palace coup by Qaboos in 1970), and a brief walk through the family tree shows that son has succeeded father since 1804 (and possibly earlier). When Qaboos dies, for the first time the ruling family will have to convene to select a successor rather than simply asking the previous ruler's son to take the reigns. They will be entering uncharted waters and maintaining the country's current stability in such a period of upheaval will be quite a challenge.   

By all accounts, Sultan Qaboos is a popular leader. During his watch Oman has flourished. But he is an absolute monarch who appears to take a hands on approach to his rule. This begs the question: is the current Omani regime too much of a one man band to pave the way for a smooth transition to the next ruler when the sultan dies? The self-imposed secrecy surrounding his successor means there is little, nay no, opportunity for a handover or training. Even if there were such an opportunity, there is no guarantee that the Ruling Family Council will select Qaboos' preferred candidate.

For what it's worth, I think Qaboos should shelve his constitutional duties and open the sealed envelope for all to see. By publicly announcing his chosen candidate he mitigates the the risk of surprising his family and citizens. Qaboos will also be able to involve the candidate in public duties, effectively instigating a handover process that will give the people some confidence in Oman's future continuity. Some come on Qaboos...tell us...Who's next?