Happy First Birthday

Today is Arabian Peninsula Focus' first birthday.

On the 27th December 2011 I opened with Welcome to Arabian Peninsula Focus and since then have posted 75 times on topics ranging from Yemen's new president, Saudi Arabia allowing women to compete in the Olympic Games and the fact there is almost nothing to say about Oman!

Sometimes life throws you curve balls, and I had a couple of these this year during which time the frequency of blog posts suffered a little. Still, I'm pleased to say that one year on after 5000 hits during 2012 we are blogging strong and look forward to a blog-post filled 2013.

So what's in store for the Arabian Peninsula during 2013? I would love to say that I have a set of firm predictions but that would be somewhat untrue. That said, how cowardly of me to refuse to stick my neck out at all!! Never one to shy away from a challenge I will have a go at some predictions:

1. Bahrain - sadly I think Bahrain's turbulent times are not over. This month we have seen the backlash begin following the government's attempts to stifle the voice of the opposition through banning public demonstrations. I predict this backlash will gain momentum as we move into 2013.

2. Yemen - after a very rocky start to his presidency, I think Yemen's new leader President Hadi will continue to gain control. I predict more positive times ahead for the nearly-failed state.

3. Saudi Arabia - nothing happens quickly in this place. I predict more of the same, with the occasional minor flurry of activity.

4. Oman - I suspect the grumblings of discontent will not be entirely silenced as we go into 2013. That said I don't think we will witness the toppling of the mostly popular Sultan, and I will continue to struggle to find things to write about Oman.

5. Qatar - the small Gulf state will progress their attempts at world domination, and will continue to struggle with the balance between being protector of the Palestinians and confidante of Capitol Hill.

6. UAE and Kuwait - who knows!

So thanks to all those who have read my blog during 2012. Stay with me in 2013, and feel free to encourage others to have a read!

Happy New Year to you all.

Heroic Hadi's military might

Finally some good news from Yemen! After months and months of military struggles between al-Qaeda factions and Yemen's army it looked like President Hadi had lost his grip since taking control from long-time despot Saleh. 

It's good to see Hadi flexing his military muscle

Yesterday news reports came from Yemen that Hadi's radical reforms of Yemen's army have been met with widespread displays of support. By undertaking these reforms Hadi has dismantled army units loyal to former President Saleh. It is heartening to see the country's new president show some military might. By ousting former Saleh loyalists we can now hope that Hadi will get a stronger handle on the army which is vital if he is going to bring the country out of this prolonged period of upheaval. 

Hadi, this is a good start. Keep up the good work. 

Grumblings in Oman

In the past I have commented how rarely news stories concerning Oman appear in the international press. Today I was very surprised to read on GulfNews.com that several Omani activists are awaiting a trial hearing after criticising Sultan Qaboos on blogs and social media sites, a direct violation of the country's cyber laws. The activists' arrest has subsequently provoked some minor public demonstrations.

It is important to put these demonstrations into perspective. I do not predict that we are witnessing Oman's entrance into the "Arab Spring" (a term which I despise for simplifying the complex reasons behind the concurrent uprisings that took place, and continue to take place, throughout the Middle East - anyone who tries to claim that the crisis in Syria is a "spring" of any sort is quite mad). That said, I do think it's important we don't dismiss these demonstrations in Oman as a "one off" incident in what is otherwise an oasis of democratic harmony.

Sultan Qaboos has kept his chosen successor a secret

Sultan Qaboos is an absolute ruler, and whilst he is one of the Middle East's most popular leaders he still relies on oppressive laws to assist his absolute leadership. It is therefore unsurprising that such laws are challenged from time to time.

Rather than being concerned about Oman and the "Arab Spring" I do think these current demonstrations should act as a warning to the aged Sultan that his succession may not be as smooth a process as he hopes. There is clearly a level of discontent bubbling under the apparent Omani serenity, and never is discontent magnified as much as during a change in leadership. The Sultan should mitigate some of this risk by being open about his chosen successor, rather than continuing with his current policy of secrecy. Such a secretive approach when there are grumblings of discontent is both delusional and irresponsible. So come on Qaboos, tell us all what we really want to know...who's next?!

Bahrain: And so the backlash begins

Sometimes it's satisfying to say "I told you so", although when the context is sectarian violence such satisfaction is bitter-sweet. On 2 November I wrote a post entitled Bahrain...beware of a backlash in response to new Bahraini legislation banning protests and gatherings. The concluding paragraph read:

 

"Before this ban on protests and gatherings, Bahrain's Shias felt they lacked a voice and representation hence why they started to demonstrate. Preventing them from demonstrating may result in a short-term period of calm, but under the surface the pressure cooker will reach explosion-point. This decision should be reversed. If not, the Bahraini government should beware of the almost-certain backlash."

 

Today I found the following headline in the Montreal Gazette:

 

"Bahrain protesters face tear gas as marches move into capital".

 



Vehicles are set alight by anti-government protesters in Bahrain



And so the backlash begins.

 

The most frustrating thing about the current situation, where different groups of Shia protesters are risking life and limb to stage protests in Manama, is that it was entirely predictable. By passing the law banning protests and gatherings the Bahraini government has fuelled the flames of the country's disgruntled Shia rather than extinguishing the voice of opposition. The ruling party was simply naive to think the latter would ever be a consequence of the ban.

 

Bahrain's Shias want to be heard, not silenced. Until they believe their voice is heard, the protests will continue, the tear gas will be thrown and the subsequent backlash will be stronger than the one before.

 

Come on Bahrain! You have failed to silence the opposition through violence and forced legislation. Start listening before more lives are lost.