Grumblings in Oman

In the past I have commented how rarely news stories concerning Oman appear in the international press. Today I was very surprised to read on GulfNews.com that several Omani activists are awaiting a trial hearing after criticising Sultan Qaboos on blogs and social media sites, a direct violation of the country's cyber laws. The activists' arrest has subsequently provoked some minor public demonstrations.

It is important to put these demonstrations into perspective. I do not predict that we are witnessing Oman's entrance into the "Arab Spring" (a term which I despise for simplifying the complex reasons behind the concurrent uprisings that took place, and continue to take place, throughout the Middle East - anyone who tries to claim that the crisis in Syria is a "spring" of any sort is quite mad). That said, I do think it's important we don't dismiss these demonstrations in Oman as a "one off" incident in what is otherwise an oasis of democratic harmony.

Sultan Qaboos has kept his chosen successor a secret

Sultan Qaboos is an absolute ruler, and whilst he is one of the Middle East's most popular leaders he still relies on oppressive laws to assist his absolute leadership. It is therefore unsurprising that such laws are challenged from time to time.

Rather than being concerned about Oman and the "Arab Spring" I do think these current demonstrations should act as a warning to the aged Sultan that his succession may not be as smooth a process as he hopes. There is clearly a level of discontent bubbling under the apparent Omani serenity, and never is discontent magnified as much as during a change in leadership. The Sultan should mitigate some of this risk by being open about his chosen successor, rather than continuing with his current policy of secrecy. Such a secretive approach when there are grumblings of discontent is both delusional and irresponsible. So come on Qaboos, tell us all what we really want to know...who's next?!