Another year passes

February 14 2013 marks the 2 year anniversary of the start of the uprisings in Bahrain. Unsurprisingly, the lead up to the anniversary has featured a series of public demonstrations, in spite of current "legislation" banning public protests. Of course, it comes as no surprise that the legislation designed to drive Bahrain's Shia opposition from the streets has failed. The only realistic way to enforce such a law would have been to round up all the country's politically active Shia and lock them up - a ridiculous idea, although I'm sure the thought has crossed the government's mind. 

In fact, not only has the anti-demonstration legislation failed, but the al-Khalifa's seem to be left with no alternative but to admit that it has failed, by organising talks, currently taking place, between the Sunni leadership and the various factions which make up the Shia opposition. Such a contrast between the quasi-despotic legislation and the practises being undertaken by the authors of the law hardly presents the al-Khalifas as strong in the face of two years of open opposition and protest. 

If I were to take my "old" line of argument I would say that continued protests are now a serious cause for concern to both the al-Khalifas and the House of Saud, and almost certainly due to Iran's masterful puppetry. 

Bahrain's King looks justifiably concerned

I now don't think the above statement is true. Allow me, momentarily, to second-guess King Abdullah's thoughts and I'd say that he's probably just as fed up with the al-Khalifas' inadequacies as we are and that he probably wouldn't be averse to regime change, so long as it happens in an orderly manner. Yes, such a change in regime may cause a stir among Saudi's Shia ranks, but nothing that couldn't be controlled. 

Now, if we sail across to the other side of the Gulf, to Iran, I wonder if Ahmadinejad is as hung up about Bahrain as the international press would have us believe. As one source told me, Iran is not bringing arms into Bahrain so their only constant source of influence is over the television transmissions which reach Bahrain from Iran.

So with Saudi and Iran arguably not as interested in Bahrain as I had previously thought, what can we conclude about the Bahrain uprising's winners and losers 2 years on? I'd say that the real loser here is Bahrain's ruling al-Khalifa family who, as another year passes, have taken to yo-yoing policies of desperation to maintain control. We should watch the next year very closely.