Friday 27 January 2012

JFK --> TBC: Where next for Saleh?

I have to admit, I'm finding it hard to keep up with Saleh's plans. When I posted on "Tribulations but no trials for Yemen's Ali Abdullah Saleh," news agencies were reporting that he would no longer be travelling to US for treatment for an injury sustained during a bomb attack on his compound. Yesterday France24 amongst others reports that Saleh is now in NYC and will likely be there until after the upcoming Yemeni elections which will name his successor. This is clearly a clever move, likely coordinated by the US, to try and ensure Yemeni elections go ahead as smoothly as possible, thereby setting in motion the regime change in Yemen.

So, Saleh is now in NYC, but when the elections are over and US homeland security politely informs the Arabian Peninsula’s most infamous leader (for now, at any rate) that his convalescence period is over, which destination will be printed on his boarding pass from JFK?
According to the Times of India “TBC” may soon be replaced by “MCT”, (MCT = Muscat, for those unfamiliar with the Omani capital's airport code. I had to look it up.) The Indian paper reports that Saleh has his sights set on a retirement pad in Oman. Perhaps I tempted fate when I posted “Oman: no news is good news,” as the arrival of Saleh and his removal men could signify a turning point in the frequency of Oman's appearances on the Middle East news pages of the international press.

Whilst Saleh may have expressed a desire to settle in Oman, I'd be surprised if the little reported country is willing to welcome the disgraced tribal leader-cum-dictator. With al-Qaeda’s presence in Yemen becoming ever more disruptive, as we saw with their recent, temporary capture of the town of Radda, Oman must already be significantly concerned by the goings on within its neighbour’s borders. By allowing Saleh to set up home in Oman, there is a real danger that certain “undesirables” will be enticed in by his presence. Let’s not forget, Saleh is a tribal leader. If he ends up taking exile somewhere further afield that the Arabian Peninsula I’d think it unlikely that a sizeable entourage will follow him. However, taking exile in Oman just across the border from Yemen could see more than just his close family trying to follow.

My current prediction is that the Sultan of Oman will politely decline Saleh’s request, but we’ll have to wait and see. For now, at least, that boarding pass still reads JFK --> TBC...

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