Tribulations but no trials for Yemen's Ali Abdullah Saleh

On Sunday 8 January, the interim Yemeni government approved a law which grants immunity from prosecution to outgoing Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh, and his aides.

The law "provides Saleh, 69, and those who worked with him, including in civilian, military and security institutions during the period of his presidency, legal and judicial immunity" (Yemeni cabinet approves immunity law for Saleh, Al-Jazeera, 09 Jan 2012. See full article here.)

Saleh must surely be breathing a sigh of relief. Only last week his own people took to the streets of Sanaa, yet again, to demand their outgoing President face trial for overseeing the killing and harming of anti-government protesters during Yemen's recent and prolonged unrest. Considering that former Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak's trial rumbles on in Cairo, and remembering the outcome of former Iraqi president Saddam Hussien's trial, I imagine Saleh suffered a few sleepless nights as he pictured himself in the dock. His determination to avoid a similar fate appears to have paid off, at least in the short term.

Saleh may have avoided a trial, but his tribulations rumble on. I see nothing he can do to reverse the tide which is doggedly carrying him out of the presidential office and thanks to the complicated web of tribal divisons throughout Yemen, he will always have a steady supply of enemies from rival tribes. Previous Yemeni tribal conduct suggests that laws passed by any central government, let alone the current transitional cabinet, are loosly observed at best. If I were Saleh, I would be more concerned of meeting a similar fate to Gadaffi than of avoiding a trial. Perhaps this explains why Saleh put in a request for a US visa (allegedly to receive treatment for an undiscolsed health problem) but then lost interest in the visa request (see Washington post article here) after Washington stated that Saleh would only be allowed to stay in the US for the time required to complete any necessary medical treatment. It seems Saleh's search for the ideal retirement spot continues.  

Despite the recent law, I doubt Saleh's presidential exit will be as smooth as he would like, neither do I think he will stop looking for alternative locations to receive "medical treatment," or in other words, a safe retirement haven free from the sharp edge of a rival tribesman's jambiya.

Do you have a different idea about where Saleh may end up? If so, post your comments below.