Happy First Birthday

Today is Arabian Peninsula Focus' first birthday.

On the 27th December 2011 I opened with Welcome to Arabian Peninsula Focus and since then have posted 75 times on topics ranging from Yemen's new president, Saudi Arabia allowing women to compete in the Olympic Games and the fact there is almost nothing to say about Oman!

Sometimes life throws you curve balls, and I had a couple of these this year during which time the frequency of blog posts suffered a little. Still, I'm pleased to say that one year on after 5000 hits during 2012 we are blogging strong and look forward to a blog-post filled 2013.

So what's in store for the Arabian Peninsula during 2013? I would love to say that I have a set of firm predictions but that would be somewhat untrue. That said, how cowardly of me to refuse to stick my neck out at all!! Never one to shy away from a challenge I will have a go at some predictions:

1. Bahrain - sadly I think Bahrain's turbulent times are not over. This month we have seen the backlash begin following the government's attempts to stifle the voice of the opposition through banning public demonstrations. I predict this backlash will gain momentum as we move into 2013.

2. Yemen - after a very rocky start to his presidency, I think Yemen's new leader President Hadi will continue to gain control. I predict more positive times ahead for the nearly-failed state.

3. Saudi Arabia - nothing happens quickly in this place. I predict more of the same, with the occasional minor flurry of activity.

4. Oman - I suspect the grumblings of discontent will not be entirely silenced as we go into 2013. That said I don't think we will witness the toppling of the mostly popular Sultan, and I will continue to struggle to find things to write about Oman.

5. Qatar - the small Gulf state will progress their attempts at world domination, and will continue to struggle with the balance between being protector of the Palestinians and confidante of Capitol Hill.

6. UAE and Kuwait - who knows!

So thanks to all those who have read my blog during 2012. Stay with me in 2013, and feel free to encourage others to have a read!

Happy New Year to you all.

Heroic Hadi's military might

Finally some good news from Yemen! After months and months of military struggles between al-Qaeda factions and Yemen's army it looked like President Hadi had lost his grip since taking control from long-time despot Saleh. 

It's good to see Hadi flexing his military muscle

Yesterday news reports came from Yemen that Hadi's radical reforms of Yemen's army have been met with widespread displays of support. By undertaking these reforms Hadi has dismantled army units loyal to former President Saleh. It is heartening to see the country's new president show some military might. By ousting former Saleh loyalists we can now hope that Hadi will get a stronger handle on the army which is vital if he is going to bring the country out of this prolonged period of upheaval. 

Hadi, this is a good start. Keep up the good work. 

Grumblings in Oman

In the past I have commented how rarely news stories concerning Oman appear in the international press. Today I was very surprised to read on GulfNews.com that several Omani activists are awaiting a trial hearing after criticising Sultan Qaboos on blogs and social media sites, a direct violation of the country's cyber laws. The activists' arrest has subsequently provoked some minor public demonstrations.

It is important to put these demonstrations into perspective. I do not predict that we are witnessing Oman's entrance into the "Arab Spring" (a term which I despise for simplifying the complex reasons behind the concurrent uprisings that took place, and continue to take place, throughout the Middle East - anyone who tries to claim that the crisis in Syria is a "spring" of any sort is quite mad). That said, I do think it's important we don't dismiss these demonstrations in Oman as a "one off" incident in what is otherwise an oasis of democratic harmony.

Sultan Qaboos has kept his chosen successor a secret

Sultan Qaboos is an absolute ruler, and whilst he is one of the Middle East's most popular leaders he still relies on oppressive laws to assist his absolute leadership. It is therefore unsurprising that such laws are challenged from time to time.

Rather than being concerned about Oman and the "Arab Spring" I do think these current demonstrations should act as a warning to the aged Sultan that his succession may not be as smooth a process as he hopes. There is clearly a level of discontent bubbling under the apparent Omani serenity, and never is discontent magnified as much as during a change in leadership. The Sultan should mitigate some of this risk by being open about his chosen successor, rather than continuing with his current policy of secrecy. Such a secretive approach when there are grumblings of discontent is both delusional and irresponsible. So come on Qaboos, tell us all what we really want to know...who's next?!

Bahrain: And so the backlash begins

Sometimes it's satisfying to say "I told you so", although when the context is sectarian violence such satisfaction is bitter-sweet. On 2 November I wrote a post entitled Bahrain...beware of a backlash in response to new Bahraini legislation banning protests and gatherings. The concluding paragraph read:

 

"Before this ban on protests and gatherings, Bahrain's Shias felt they lacked a voice and representation hence why they started to demonstrate. Preventing them from demonstrating may result in a short-term period of calm, but under the surface the pressure cooker will reach explosion-point. This decision should be reversed. If not, the Bahraini government should beware of the almost-certain backlash."

 

Today I found the following headline in the Montreal Gazette:

 

"Bahrain protesters face tear gas as marches move into capital".

 



Vehicles are set alight by anti-government protesters in Bahrain



And so the backlash begins.

 

The most frustrating thing about the current situation, where different groups of Shia protesters are risking life and limb to stage protests in Manama, is that it was entirely predictable. By passing the law banning protests and gatherings the Bahraini government has fuelled the flames of the country's disgruntled Shia rather than extinguishing the voice of opposition. The ruling party was simply naive to think the latter would ever be a consequence of the ban.

 

Bahrain's Shias want to be heard, not silenced. Until they believe their voice is heard, the protests will continue, the tear gas will be thrown and the subsequent backlash will be stronger than the one before.

 

Come on Bahrain! You have failed to silence the opposition through violence and forced legislation. Start listening before more lives are lost.

Things have khat out of control in Yemen

Today I found a new source of blog inspiration: The Alaska Dispatch. A big thank you to Sarah Palin's local news service for running a Yemen story that doesn't feature al-Qaeda. Instead, the Alaska Dispatch article subject, and the subject of this blog post is Khat, aka Qat or Gat.

Khat is a mildly narcotic plant. Yemenis purchase branches of Khat leaves on a daily basis and throughout the course of an afternoon pull the leaves from the stem one by one, chew each leaf lightly (enough to break the leaf's surface but not enough to split the leaf fully in two) before storing the leaf in their cheek. Little by little a golf-ball sized collection of Khat leaves begins to form in the cheek of the chewer. The chewer will continue to add leaves and increase the size of the ball until their cheek has reached it's stretch limit (or until they have had enough, although when I was in Yemen it seemed this coincided with the cheek's stretch limit!). The chewer then sits with this large clump of slightly mashed khat leaves stored in their cheek (as demonstrated  by the unknown man in the image on the right) before removing the clump, binning it and heading to bed. When I was in Yemen in 2007 I observed that khat chewing usually started around 1500hrs and finished late on into the evening.

Khat sounds harmless enough. Its narcotic effect is mild and it's not officially classified as a drug. Rumour has it that Yemenia, Yemen's national airline, used to serve it to passengers. During a visit to Yemen in 2007 I tried khat on two occasions: the first time I bit too hard, split the leaves into multiple pieces and swallowed the lot, a beginners error which my digestive system particularly regretted the following day. On the second occasion I successfully stored the leaves in my cheek like the man in the picture with the only notable side effects being mild insomnia juxtaposed with slight lethargy and a very sore cheek.

But khat has more sinister, non-biological side effects. Daily khat chewing reduces productivity amongst what should be the country's active working population. Khat chewing is a social custom and workforce output levels reduce dramatically once the khat leaves are brought out mid afternoon. On top of this, good quality khat comes at a premium and Yemeni families often spend more money each week on khat than they do on food.

The final negative impact of khat is discussed in the Alaska Dispatch article that inspired this blog post. Yemen is currently experiencing water shortages. Khat growing not only takes up valuable arable land but is also a thirsty crop and is estimated to consume 40% of the country's water resources. Due to its premium price, more and more farmers are converting their land to khat growing, sacrificing increasingly valuable fruit and vegetable production which is subsequently causing rising food costs. As a non-chewing outsider, it is clear that this khat obsession needs to be tempered.

I recently read about a twitter campaign to wean Yemen off this leaf. A short summary says the campaign has not made much progress. In short, it seems leaf chewing has khat out of control (excuse this lame quasi-pun!). But seriously, if the country really is bent on removing al-Qaeda from its midst I doubt it will do it whilst high on a mild narcotic leaf.

If Yemen is to move into the future, I think it's time to leave the khat leaf in the past.

Bahrain...beware of a backlash

Today I stumbled upon an article on the Al-Jazeera website which concerned me: Bahrain bans protests and gatherings. This headline speaks for itself but the article's first paragraph also provides a useful summary: "Bahrain has imposed a ban on all protest gatherings and is threatening legal action against groups considered backing escalating demonstrations and clashes". The Bahraini government maintains that this is not "an outright ban" on political demonstrations, but rather an opportunity for the country to re-group and regain its strength from a national security perspective after months of Shia-led demonstrations against the country's Sunni leadership.

Banning protests and gatherings is a bold step. Arguably maintaining control in a country torn by sectarianism requires a firm hand...but not like this. In my view, this action is a defensive knee-jerk retaliation from a Sunni government who feels it is losing control rather than a considered response from an authority confident in its ability to maintain order in a complex sectarian environment. The Bahraini government needs to realise that its future success lies not in suppressing the opposition, but in forging a meaningful, sustainable partnership.

Before this ban on protests and gatherings, Bahrain's Shias felt they lacked a voice and representation hence why they started to demonstrate. Preventing them from demonstrating may result in a short-term period of calm, but under the surface the pressure cooker will reach explosion-point. This decision should be reversed. If not, the Bahraini government should beware of the almost-certain backlash.

Can Qatar be friends with everyone?

Qatar's Sheikh Hamad during his visit to Gaza

Today the BBC reported on the Qatari Emir's controversial visit to the Gaza Strip. Qatar's leader, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, visited a number of sites in Gaza and used the visit to call for unity between the geographically and politically divided Palestinian territories of the West Bank and Gaza. 

Unsurprisingly the Emir's visit was not seen as positive by all. Fatah, the political party recognised by the international community as the official representatives of the Palestinian people, seemed affronted that the Qatari Emir chose to visit Gaza, the HQ of Fatah's rival party Hamas. (Hamas is viewed as a terrorist organisation by many western governments despite receiving a majority vote in the last Palestinian election). Israel were also angry, accusing Qatar's Emir of throwing "peace under a bus" by visiting Gaza.

In some respects Qatar's bold step deserves credit. I have previously criticised certain countries from the Arabian Peninsula for vociferously pledging support to fellow Arab countries in need whilst failing to legitimise their words with solid action. In this instance Qatar has pledged to provide £250million to support building projects in Gaza, already acts as a beneficiary to Hamas and has taken this latest bold step of visiting Gaza.

In other respects Qatar may have taken a step too far by sending the Emir into Gaza. As mentioned above Hamas is widely viewed as a terrorist organisation rather than a legitimate political party. The Emir should think carefully before aligning to such a party, especially given his previous efforts to woo the west. I wonder how long the Emir of Qatar can sustain hosting rubbing shoulders with international organisations such as the IOC whilst simultaneously building a new Hamas HQ. 

If Mitt beats Barak in a fortnight's time things could get even trickier for Qatar and its attempts to be friends with everyone.

Saudi makes a landmark Olympic u-turn

Regular readers of this blog will be aware that I have been unimpressed but unsurprised with Saudi Arabia's decision not to allow women to compete in London 2012. I was therefore delighted to read the following headline written by Frank Gardner for the BBC website: 

London 2012 Olympics: Saudis to allow women to compete

According to Gardner since the latest public announcement that Saudi women will not be allowed to compete there has been furious negotiation behind the scenes of the Riyadh power houses. It seems the ageing King Abdullah can be credited with leading the charge against the country's vociferous conservatives in his calls to lift the ban on Saudi women competing in the Games. 

The significance of this decision should not be underestimated but, unfortunately, its short term impact should not be overestimated. 

Salma Rushdi Malhas - Saudi's 20 year old show-jumper

The London 2012 opening ceremony is one month tomorrow which does not allow Saudi's budding female athletes any time to enter the qualifying rounds for their chosen sports. Indeed many of these qualifiers have already taken place and the sought-after Olympic places filled. The only likely Saudi female contestant, show-jumper Salma Rushdi Malhas, today discovered that she had not qualified, bringing an end to any hope of Saudi women heading to London next month. Salma's mother confirmed the young athlete's disappointment at not being chosen for the Games but re-confirmed the show-jumpers determination to compete in future Olympics. Salma's sights are firmly set on Rio 2016. This is a strong sign that, whilst there will be little short term impact to Saudi's decision to allow women to compete in the Olympics, the potential long term impact is quite exciting. 

In a country where women's rights development happen at the slowest imaginable pace, this is a fantastic step forward. Good luck Salma, and all the other Saudi female athletes who currently train outside the gaze of the world's sports enthusiasts. We look forward to cheering you on in Rio.

A new Saudi heir...but don't expect any change

On Saturday 16 June Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Nayef bin Abdul Aziz al-Saud died during surgery in Geneva. Prince Nayef's death left vacant the position of heir to King Abdullah's throne, although the position was not left vacant for long. By 18 June the world's press reported that, following an announcement on Saudi state television, Prince Salman bin Abdul Aziz al-Saud, a younger brother of Prince Nayef has been named as the new Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia.

Newly appointed Crown Prince Salman

As the current Saudi defence minister (since 2011) and longstanding governor of Riyadh, Prince Salman is used to holding positions of responsibility. This is fortunate indeed, especially as King Abdullah is now 88 years old; Prince Salman could be king before too long.

What can we expect from a Salman-led Saudi Arabia? News reports seem unanimous in reporting that Salman is seen as more progressive and liberal than his late brother. I find this particularly interesting, especially as the world's press seem not to have challenged this image of the new Crown Prince. In the absence of any challenge from the world's more established journalists, I am going to have a go with a very simple line of argument. Salman has been the governor of Riyadh since 1963. Under his governorship Riyadh became progressively stricter and stricter until it eventually earned its status as the strictest city in Saudi Arabia, the Arabian Peninsula, the Middle East and the Muslim world. Riyadh is now a strong contender for the accolade of "most oppressive city in the world". I would argue that the man who has governed the city through this transformation seems neither progressive nor liberal.

Despite the world's journalists branding the Crown Prince Salman as a progressive liberal, they have also almost unanimously stated that they don't expect his eventual succession to the Saudi throne (assuming he outlives King Abdullah) to bring about any significant change in the way the country is ruled. On this point the journalists and I are in agreement.

Saudi Arabia's Got Talent: contestants welcome - excluding women

There were a few potential things to write about Saudi Arabia in recent news headlines including oil production hikes and more developments with the Saudi Olympic team's participation in London 2012.

Instead, I couldn't resist using the following headline as the source for today's blog:

Saudi Arabia launches no music, no women, 'Arab's got talent'

 

This show is definitely going to be interesting! Instead of the more common acts that we are used to seeing in a "[insert county here]'s got talent" contestants will be encouraged to recite prayer, poems or engage in sport in an attempt to win. Given how generic a lot of these national talent programmes have become, I do not think it is a bad thing that Saudi Arabia's incarnation of the competition will be somewhat unique. However, their decision to ban women from taking part in the show, whilst not at all surprising, is quite abhorrent.  

However, this decision may actually have a positive impact on the quiet but persistent calls for improved women's rights in the Kingdom. Headlines like the one above have appeared on news sites and publications throughout the world, again putting the spotlight on the way women are treated in the largest country in the Arabian Peninsula.

So we will not be seeing women on the stage as the programme airs later this year, but the optimist in me hopes that the global coverage of this story will play some part in progressing improved rights for women in Saudi Arabia.

More drone attacks in Yemen

Today I read an article in the Washington Post which reported that a U.S. drone strike killed five al-Qaeda fighters on Thursday night last week. (Readers should note that al-Qaeda report that only 2 of their fighters were killed). This report of a US-led drone attack in Yemen is not the first I have read in recent months. Indeed, it seems there is a growing trend of drone attacks in the troubled country

Last week I posted on the intervention in Yemen led by the US and Yemen's Arabian Peninsula neighbours. At the time I commented how, whilst there are no US troops on the ground in Yemen, there is a increasing contingent of military advisers sent from Washington to Sanaa to help President Hadi in his fight against al-Qaeda. We should definitely keep an eye on the frequency of these US-led drone attacks in Yemen as it will provide an indication of the current scale of foreign intervention in the troubled country. It is also interesting to note that such drone attacks certainly point to the fact that the US role in Yemen is more than that of military consultant. I would argue that launching drone attacks against al-Qadea on Yemeni soil does constitute full-scale military intervention, irrespective of the presence of any US ground troops.

It is hard to see how Hadi could be anti the drone attacks. By accepting US help, the Yemeni president has diversified his military capabilities to include cutting edge military technology, surely a useful addition to one's arsenal when trying to fight al-Qaeda?

Benefits aside, the US and Hadi should remain savvy of the risks associated with drone attacks. If an error is made which kills civilians rather than al-Qaeda fighters this could play into the terrorist network's hands. An off-course drone could give al-Qaeda a trump card in the battle for hearts and minds as they could convince local civilian populations that Hadi's alliance with the US means more to the President than protecting his own people. 

For the time being, the regular news reports of drone attacks in Yemen would suggest that despite the associated risks, the decision has been taken to progress full steam ahead with the drone attacks.

Russia riled by a Saudi-Qatari alliance



Today I read an article on PressTV.com in which the Russian Ambassador to the United Nations Vitaly Churkin strongly criticised Qatar and Saudi Arabia for their financing of and supplying weapons to the “armed opposition” in Syria.



Ever since violence erupted in Syria, international support for either the rebels or the regime has come from predicable sources. Iran (and subsequently Russia) has unsurprisingly supported Asad’s Shia regime whilst the Middle East’s Sunni-led countries have sided with the Sunni rebels or “armed opposition”.

Churkin’s outburst is arguably a tell-tale sign that Iran and Russia are now genuinely concerned that Asad’s regime in Syria will fall. If Syria’s “armed opposition” prevails I am certain that Syria will opt for Sunni leadership. This would be a major blow for Russia and Iran who rely heavily on Syria as a satellite control centre for Shia interests in the Middle East. Damascus is also used by Shia political leadership as a driving seat for controlling Lebanon’s Shia population.

As the conflict in Syria continues (and I like the rest of us hope very much it comes to an end as soon as possible to prevent the occurrence of yet more brutalities) I’d expect Russia and Iran to continue criticsing any Sunni Muslim country providing material support to Asad’s opposition. For from being perturbed by Churkin’s complaint, I imagine Saudi Arabia and Qatar are pleased at ruffling the feathers of their Russian and Iranian nemeses.  

Bahrain, it is time to practise what you tweet

Nabeel Rajab, pictured left, is confronted by a police officer

Today I read in the BBC that Bahrain's prominent rights activist Nabeel Rajab is again in police custody, arrested on suspicion of posting tweets criticising the ruling Sunni regime. In response to his arrest, Rajab stated that: "I was targeted because I was exercising my right to defend human rights, which is a right that is stipulated by the Bahraini constitution." Unfortunately, throughout the Arabian Peninsula it remains commonplace for public critics of ruling parties to receive a knock on the door from the officers of the peace, irrespective of constitutional stipulations. Bahrain is clearly no different. 

Interestingly, it is worth reminding readers that not long ago Bahrain publicly stated its ambitions to become the regional "social media" leader. At the time of this statement the small island's rulers called on all members of parliament to open twitter accounts to help set the trend of widespread social media use.

Once it encouraged citizens to use twitter the Sunni leadership should have been prepared for both critics and supporters alike to follow its direction. Unfortunately, considering Nabeel Rajab's arrest, it seems that Bahrain is not quite practising what it tweets. 

In reality, I am pretty sure that when Bahrain's ruling regime encouraged its members of parliament to start tweeting away it intended for their tweets to set an appropriate tone of conformity for the rest of its citizens to follow. Considering the ongoing political and religio-sectarian tensions in Bahrain, this was a dangerous (and arguably very blinkered) social media strategy. It seems Rajab and his fellow activists are pushing the bounds of cyber-free-speech as far as they can and I doubt this will be the last time Rajab falls foul of Bahrain's twitter police.

Time for a light touch intervention in Yemen

There is no doubt that President Hadi took on a challenge when he received handover from Saleh as Yemen's leader. Almost every day since Hadi's presidential inauguration Yemen has featured in the international headlines, headlines that relentlessly report on violence between the country's armed forces and Al Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). On top of this backdrop of violence, the country is facing famine and a crippling lack of resources to solve its long list of problems. Cue international commentators branding the country a "failed state".

Yemen is now sufferin

However, it appears Yemen's international "allies" have realised there is too much at stake to write off Yemen as a failure. Today I read an article by Reuters entitled As violence rises, U.S. and allies pulled into Yemen. In the article Reuters' Peter Apps writes that the US, having lost its appetite for Afghanistan/Iraq-style full-scale on-the-ground intervention, is now trying a more subtle approach to meddling in Yemen (drone attacks aside). Whilst there are no US troops officially on the ground in Yemen, there is an ever increasing presence of US military advisors attempting to guide Hadi and shape his anti-al-Qaeda strategy. One can easily understand the US motivation for wanting to crush al-Qaeda and help Hadi gain control. From a US point of view a "failed" Yemen is a potential petri dish for anti-US terror plans. Indeed, it is already widely assumed that several recent terror plots were conceived and developed in Yemen.

The US is not the only foreign country providing support to Yemen. Saudi Arabia and other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have provided Yemen with financial aid to help restore order in the troubled country. As much as the idealist in me wants to attribute these donations to the GCC's sense of Arab Nationalism I know this is unlikely to be the case. Located in close proximity to Yemen, the GCC countries will all share a common concern of having a "failed state" as a neighbour. 

The GCC may soon be adding a 7th seat at its table

In fact grumblings are already surfacing: Saudi Arabia has expressed its concern that violence in northern Yemen could spill over the border into its territory. The mutterings from within the GCC to provide a chair at its mahogany table for Hadi are, I'm sure, an attempt to help provide more unrestricted advice to and influence the otherwise stricken state. Why else would affluent countries such as The UAE and Oman wish to welcome Yemen into their rich-mans-club? After all, there is little Yemen can offer in return. For me the answer is not too tricky: whether it be members of the GCC or western superpowers, all countries trying to "save Yemen" are motivated by a desire to safeguard their own national security.

Considering this, how should Yemen respond to its foreign "saviors"? Potentially somewhat controversially, I think Hadi should welcome all the help he can get. To put it simply, things are not going well for Hadi. Crucially, he does not have the resources to bring the country back on its feet. It these resources are now being offered to Yemen's leader he'd be foolish not to accept the offer. The danger is that Yemen's new president will surrender some of his country's autonomy by receiving outside help but the consequences of not accepting help could be much worse.  In short, I think it's time for a light touch intervention in Yemen.

Oman's Sultan has ruled for 42 years. But who's next?

Sultan Qaboos of Oman

Oman's Sultan, Qaboos bin Said al-Said, is 72 years old. He and his wife,  Sayyidah Nawwal bint Tariq have no children and the ageing sultan has not publicly stated his preference for an heir. Given the wider context of the "Arab Spring", when Sultan Qaboos eventually dies the currently uneventful country could be in for some domestic turbulence.

Interestingly, constitutionally Qaboos has done nothing out of the ordinary by not announcing his preferred heir. Article 6 of Oman's constitution states that the Ruling Family Council chooses the successor after the throne becomes vacant. The previous sultan's preference should be noted in an official letter and referred to only in the event that the Ruling Family Council fails to achieve consensus in choosing the new heir. Qaboos claims he has already written and sealed his letter and given it to the defense minister.  

Constitution aside, history tells a different story. Qaboos' predecessor was his father (removed from power in a palace coup by Qaboos in 1970), and a brief walk through the family tree shows that son has succeeded father since 1804 (and possibly earlier). When Qaboos dies, for the first time the ruling family will have to convene to select a successor rather than simply asking the previous ruler's son to take the reigns. They will be entering uncharted waters and maintaining the country's current stability in such a period of upheaval will be quite a challenge.   

By all accounts, Sultan Qaboos is a popular leader. During his watch Oman has flourished. But he is an absolute monarch who appears to take a hands on approach to his rule. This begs the question: is the current Omani regime too much of a one man band to pave the way for a smooth transition to the next ruler when the sultan dies? The self-imposed secrecy surrounding his successor means there is little, nay no, opportunity for a handover or training. Even if there were such an opportunity, there is no guarantee that the Ruling Family Council will select Qaboos' preferred candidate.

For what it's worth, I think Qaboos should shelve his constitutional duties and open the sealed envelope for all to see. By publicly announcing his chosen candidate he mitigates the the risk of surprising his family and citizens. Qaboos will also be able to involve the candidate in public duties, effectively instigating a handover process that will give the people some confidence in Oman's future continuity. Some come on Qaboos...tell us...Who's next?

Saudi sport - it's a man's world

Training in vain - there will be no Saudi women at London 2012

On 6 April, I posted on the decision made by Saudi Arabia's National Olympic Committee president Prince Nawaf bin Faisal not to endorse female participation in Saudi's Olympic team (see Saudi Olympic team - only men aloud). Prince Nawaf's decision provoked a strong, negative reaction from a range of NGOs globally. The International Olympic Committee were asked to consider imposing sanctions against the ultra-conservative kingdom. 

Today I happened across an article on the Daily Mail website which provides the concluding chapter to this little saga. In the article, the Mail reported that:

"Having discussed the issue in Quebec yesterday, the International Olympic Committee's (IOC) talks resulted in them not imposing any sanctions on the Middle Easterners"

In other words, despite the fact that Saudi Arabia's decision to exclude their own women from taking part in the Olympic Games (which directly contravenes the fourth, sixth and seventh fundamental principles of the Olympic Charter to which all participating countries are supposedly bound), the International Olympic Committee (IOC) have decided to take no action.

Whilst this is not at all surprising, it is a great shame. The IOC's decision serves as a reminder of how hard it is (ignoring the multiple written and verbal proclamations to the contrary) to uncouple the Olympic Games from the forces of international politics. Saudi Arabia is a vital western ally. Jacques Rogge and his leadership would not be thanked by their respective governments for taking action that could potentially jeopardise the special relationship that the closed Kingdom shares with the west. 

So yet again, the acronym KSA will not appear during any women's Olympic events this summer in London. If there is any hope of seeing female representation from Saudi Arabia in Rio 2016, it will be due to reforms towards women's policies from within the Kingdom rather than any intervention from the IOC. For the time being Saudi sport (like so many things in Saudi Arabia) remains a man's world. 

Arabian Peninsula Focus finds its voice

Hello all. On the off-chance that there are any hardened Arabian Peninsula Focus fans out there, I owe you all an apology. I have not posted since 03 May - almost a month of silence. I'm afraid I have no exciting excuses for my silence. All I can say is that Arabian Peninsula Focus lost its voice...

Well friends and readers - thankfully we're back in business and will be posting furiously over the coming weeks and months. Our remit remains the same - from Saudi to Yemen, Kuwait to Qatar and Bahrain to the UAE we will endeavour to provide pithy opinions on the latest developments in the Arabian Peninsula. What's more, since my last post on 03 May, I have become yet more determined to find something to write about Oman and, excitingly, I think I may have finally found a topic on which to write a little Omani feature. So watch this space - Arabian Peninsula focus has re-found its voice is about to start singing from the rooftops!

No Salmon fishing in Yemen

Today I stumbled across a rather lovely article in the Daily Telegraph entitled There's no salmon fishing in Yemen, tourist board warns. 

When I trawl through Internet articles looking for recent news on Yemen I have come to expect accounts of violent attacks or Saleh's struggles to let go of power. I don't expect to read about fishing; I have to say it was rather refreshing to come across a positive article about Yemen.

Fancy a stop of fishing? well don't come to Yemen then!

The essence of the Telegraph's article is that since the release of the Ewan McGregor and Emily Blunt film Salmon Fishing in the Yemen, (based on the novel by Paul Torday) there has been a surge of visitors to the Yemen Tourist Board's UK website. Amusingly, this recent interest in Yemen has stirred a panic in the Board's UK spokesman who has reiterated that salmon fishing isn't really popular, (or indeed possible) in Yemen.

I visited Yemen in 2007 and was blown away by its beautifully dramatic landscape and soft, distinctive architecture. At that time it was a popular destination for the more hardened European hikers, particularly from France and Germany  who impressed their younger Yemeni walking guides by making light work of the challenging terrain. It is therefore no surprise that those Brits who have seen the film version of Torday's novel are interested in visiting the country.

Yemen's rugged yet beautiful countryside

Sadly, this interest in Yemen as a tourist destination is dreadfully timed. I had a wonderful trip to the country in 2007 and I intend to go back at some point but I will not rush to Sana'a or the surrounding countryside at the moment. President Hadi needs to gain more control and especially needs to stop militant groups (allegedly al-Qaeda) from regularly attacking his army checkpoints before the country is ready to do themselves justice when it comes to tourism.

I only hope that the surge of interest tourist towards Yemen can stand the test of time necessary to see the country back on its feet. Growth in a tourist industry would undoubtedly benefit the country and, as I said before, it is a wonderful place to visit. That said, for the keen salmon anglers out there...best leave your rods and tackle in Blighty.  

Today's 4...Meddlers, widows, retrials and sunshine

Yesterday, the BBC reported that Osama Bin Laden's three widows will be welcomed into Saudi Arabia following their quasi-imprisonment and subsequent deportation from Pakistan. Saudi Arabia has quoted humanitarian reasons for allowing the women to settle back in the kingdom. For once, I agree with Saudi Arabia's decision. Two out of the three widows are Saudi Arabian, (the third is Yemeni) and it is highly unlikely that they would be allowed in many other countries. The women were undoubtedly subservient to their husband and we should be cautious about punishing them by association for the crimes of their husband.
 
Al-Jazeera reported that 21 Bahraini activists convicted by military court for participation in riots last year will be retried in a civil court. The ruling has come from the country's Court of Cassation following an appeal by the 21 activists to be retried. This is a significant step for Bahrain and should not be overlooked as insignificant. Some critics have been quick to label events in Bahrain as part of the wider "Arab Spring." I don't agree. That Bahrain can accept a possible error in its past rulings is a key differentiator between the island kingdom and the fallen regimes of Gadaffi and Mubarak.

Time's up Saleh...

The Associated Press reported that the UN's envoy to Yemen has requested former president Saleh to "stop meddling" in the country's affairs. The comment comes as President Saleh begins a full-scale offensive against alleged the al-Qaeda militants who have been the source of daily targeted attacks against military personnel since Hadi power. If Saleh cares at all about Yemeni internal affairs he will take the UN envoy's advice. Hadi is finally taking the tough stance necessary to restore order in the country and the last thing he needs is long-distance meddling from an ineffective former despot. It's time to let go Saleh.

And finally...

In the absence of anything noteworthy to say on Oman, I thought I'd tell readers that the Muscat's weather forecast for tomorrow is dry and sunny with temperatures reaching 43 degrees Celsius. Come on Oman...give me something to write about...please...  

A belt and braces execution in Riyadh

Today I read an article on DigitalJournal.com. It was my first time visiting their website, which I was drawn to by the bold headline: Sudanese man beheaded and crucified in Saudi Arabia.

Someone unfamiliar with the punitive norms of the closed kingdom may think that such a headline refers to some sort of gruesome act of retribution by one criminal gang to another. Sadly not. The Sudanese man was in fact put to death by the state following his conviction of rape, murder, theft and arson. Granted, assuming the defendant was guilty, he committed a vile series of crimes which deserve harsh punishment. Indeed, some states in the USA would execute one of their own citizens for committing a similar series of crimes.

My question is simple: why did the guilty man have to be beheaded and crucified? According to DigitalJournal.com, the Sudanese man was first beheaded after which his head was reconnected to his body. He was then crucified; a belt and braces approach to execution if ever I saw one. 

To me, beheading and then crucifying goes way beyond a strict judicial system. Such an approach is simple thuggery and smacks of the mafia-style tribal warfare which peppered the Arabian Peninsula before Abdulaziz Ibn Saud created the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia shortly after the beginning of the twentieth Century.

I think it's time the country's judicial system officials have a think a about the message they are passing on to their own people, and to the rest of the world. There is no need for a belt and braces approach to execution. If Saudi Arabia insist on retaining the death penalty, they should at least do so in a responsible manner.

Today's 4...Taxes, beheadings, famine & Forumla1

The Lebanon Daily Star reports that Dubai plans to impose 200% tax on tobacco by August.

 

Such a move would double the current levy of 100% which the emirate imposes on tobacco products. The announcement to increase the levy to 200% was made by the director general of the Dubai Health Authority during a cardiology conference. Whilst this planned increase in tobacco tax may seemingly be motivated by a desire to improve the health of Dubai's smoking population, we should not ignore the obvious benefit to Dubai's tax collectors. The current 100% levy contributes 1% to Dubai's annual income. Doubling the levy will certainly benefit the emirate's economy. I am sure that health has played some part in the decision making process leading to the 200% tobacco levy, but as Dubai continues along the path of economic recovery I am certain the opportunity to add to the sovereign coffers was a deciding factor. 

Russia Today reports of a charge of beheading for "witchcraft" in Saudi Arabia.

 

A Sri Lankan woman is facing decapitation on charges on witchcraft in Saudi Arabia. The charges were brought against the woman after a Saudi man complained his 13 daughter began to behave abnormally after being in close proximity to the Sri Lankan lady in a shopping mall in the Red Sea city of Jeddah. According to Wahhabist Islam, the strict form of Sunni Islam which governs Saudi Arabian Sharia law, witchcraft is still a recognised crime. The only recommended sentence is death. In this blog I try to avoid professing strong opinions on religion, but I am now going to break my self-imposed rule. The fact that this Sri Lankan lady is facing the death penalty for being a witch in a country which likes to consider itself a key player in regional and global politics is quite simply barbaric. Furthermore, the fact that Wahhabist Islam provides the rationale for beheading this lady makes, in my opinion, Wahhabist Islam equally barbaric. Many Saudi Arabians are very well educated, having attended some of the best further education institutions in the world. It is definitely time for the country to wake up and put some of this education into practice by recognising Wahhabist Islam for what it really is.

Bad news about Yemen has now become the norm. When searching on Google news for "Yemen" one receives a barrage of news pages reporting on the latest attacks, with daily death tolls almost always in double figures. As if that wasn't enough The Economist reports that Among other troubles, Yemen faces a creeping famine. 

 

After such a protracted period of unrest in the troubled country it seems contingency is exhausted, not just at a government level but throughout the population with the richer families now unable to provide "zakat" (alms), one of the Five Pillars of Islam, to their poorer neighbours. Everything in Yemen, including food and the diesel required to fuel the country's water pumps travels by road. Throughout the months of unrest road routes have been cut or disrupted resulting in a food and water shortage throughout the country. As I have reported on this blog, Hadi's new government has almost no financial resources to improve the country's roads or increase fuel subsidies, both of which are vital steps to alleviate the worsening famine. More and more it seems the only solution is for international aid agencies to intervene. Unfortunately, such international programmes tend to gain momentum once famine is well and truly set in. It is unlikely that Yemen will receive the support it desperately requires until the situation reaches its nadir. 

And finally...
 

Bahrain's Grand Prix has received ample press coverage in the last week Today, Reuters, amongst many others, reports that Protests rage as Bahrain Grand Prix practice begins. 

 

Last night, as drivers prepared for the start of practice sessions on the Grand Prix track this morning protestors promised to mark the start of the small country's famous annual event with a "day of rage" against the ruling regime. Yesterday evening protests broke out in villages surrounding Manama. It seems unrest also spread into the capital as two members of the India Team asked to go home after seeing burning petrol bombs whilst travelling from the racing circuit back to their Manama hotel. Whilst I have sympathy with the plight of Bahrain's Shia majority population and the second-class treatment they receive at the hands of the Sunni minority leadership I do not believe disrupting the Grand Prix is the right way to transmit their message. Bahrain's Grand Prix is an annual event, much anticipated by Formula 1 fans around the world. As such, it is a major source of revenue from the country as well as a source of prestige on the global stage. Both the revenue and prestige are vital to anyone leading Bahrain and the event should be viewed as a key resource. In short, I think the protesters have adopted a self-harm approach by attacking the Grand Prix. The protesters also risk losing international support, without which they will struggle to progress their cause. My advice, although I very much doubt any Bahraini protesters read this blog, would be to leave the Grand Prix alone. Once, and not before, the last car has whizzed over the finish line the protesters should continue to push for an equal constitution.

Oman loses an ancient voice

This week I am determined write an article on Oman, which rarely features in posts on this blog. (see Oman: no news is good news). I am pleased to say that yesterday I stumbled across an article in the Times of Oman which jumped out as material for a blog post on this little-talked-about sultanate.

Musandam is an isolated province in north-east Oman

The Omani village of Kumzar is located in the province of Musandam, just 50km away from Iran. A pretty fishing port, Kumzar boasts ancient heritage and beautiful beaches. The village also has its very own language which is sadly dying out.

In a "Question of survival for Oman’s rare language" the Times of Oman reports that Kumzari, a mixture of Indo-European languages and Arabic and the only non-Semitic language spoken on the Arabian peninsula in the past 1,400 years, is dying out due to the progressive modernisation of the isolated village, which now has satellite television and internet access. 

Whilst I admit that this little story is hardly major international news, the loss of an ancient language should not be dismissed as insignificant. Throughout history the spread of empires around the world has resulted in more remote spoken languages falling out of popular vernacular and into the archives. The spread of Islam is no exception, with Arabic becoming the dominant language throughout the Arab and swathes of the Muslim world.

Kumzar's fishing port

As a language enthusiast, I see the loss of a language as a great shame. However, as the village of Kumzar becomes more and more connected to the modernity of Muscat, I fear it is inevitable that those fluent in Kumzar will take the language to their graves without leaving its words as inheritance to future generations. It is therefore essential that Oman's historians keep a record of the language in their history books. It seems too important to forget.

More violence in Yemen

Yesterday, I posted "Down but not out - Hadi battles on" - some thoughts on the challenging start to Hadi's presidency, but also a recognition of his perseverance thus far.

Today, when looking through the news pages searching for a new post, I read the following BBC headline:

Yemen unrest: eleven killed in army checkpoint attack

The BBC's article was one of the earliest to appear on the web. The early reports state that the eleven killed consist of eight Yemeni soldiers and three "militants". As with all other attacks on Yemeni militants, authorities from Sana'a assume the militants are part of Yemen's branch of al-Qaeda.

Where this latest attack differs is the location. Whereas most of the current violence in Yemen is centered in the South of the country, today's violence occurred circa 300 kms east of Sana'a.

Whilst I complemented Hadi's relatively stoic response to his turbulent first few months in office, I do think he needs to take a more proactive and strategic response to tackling the now almost daily attacks on his ground forces. I fear that such a strategic response may be disabled by the lack of funds at his disposal. Perhaps Hadi needs to think about drafting in some foreign support. Saudi Arabia already meddles regularly in Yemeni affairs. Considering both Riyadh and Sana'a share the same enemy in the form of al-Qaeda, perhaps they should consider joining forces.    

Down but not out - Hadi battles on

Today AFP, amongst others, reported that this morning 44 people were killed in clashes with alleged al-Qaeda fighters in southern Yemen.

Today's clashes took place on the back of what has been a trying few days for Yemen's president Hadi. On Friday Hadi tried to remove from power some of the remaining remnants of former President Ali Adbullah Saleh's regime. This came to a head at Sana'a's international airport which was blockaded in protest by supporters of the former president, including Saleh's half-brother, air force commander Mohammed Saleh al-Ahmar.

Al-Ahmar eventually gave up the fight and left Yemen on Sunday 08 April but today's violent clashes in the country's south have meant there has been no let up for Hadi.

There is no denying that Yemen's new President has had a turbulent start to his presidency. He has almost no financial resources to help him cement his position, he seems to be fighting al-Qaeda militants on a daily basis with notable loss of life and is now facing public challenges to his power from members of former president Saleh's regime.

By most peoples' standards, Hadi has had a baptism of fire into his new position. That said, it's important to remember Yemen's state of disarray at the time of Hadi's arrival in office. Arguably things have improved significantly since then. Whilst violence in the south has unfortunately become common place, a semblance of normality has returned to the country's capital. Hadi should be congratulated for this, just as he should be congratulated for holding firm against Al-Ahmar's attempts to remain head of the air force.

Yemen's new president has and continues to face significant challenges, but his actions to date have shown that whilst he may be down he is certainly not out.  

Saudi Olympic team - only men aloud

Today the Daily Telegraph reported that Saudi Arabia's National Olympic Committee president Prince Nawaf bin Faisal has publicly stated that he will not endorse Saudi female participation in the London Olympic Games. This means that any budding Saudi female athletes will not be able to compete in London2012 as part of the official delegation, although in theory does not completely prevent a Saudi woman from competing.

No women will be carrying the Saudi flag at London 2012

In reality, I doubt any female from the closed Kingdom will make it to London. With a royal statement against female athlete participation, it is highly unlikely that any patriach of a potential female athlete will risk contradicting Prince Nawaf by allowing one of his female family members to compete for a place at the Games in July and August. 

Whilst this is a great shame, it does not come as a surprise. Saudi Arabia treats is female citizens no better than glorified prisoners. This mal-treatment publicly manifests itself in the form of the black abaya, the plain cloak that all women must wear whenever they are out of the confines of their homes.  It would have been quite out of character for the country's officials to allow female athletes to don lycra and sprint around a running track in front of a potential global audience of 2 billion people.

Whilst Prince Nawaf's decision was to be expected, the fact that Saudi's female athletes will not be part of the country's official Olympic team has at least reminded the international media of the strict conditions under which Saudi women are forced to live. In short, there is now a media storm surrounding the decision and this may benefit Saudi women in the long run, as pressure mounts on King Abdullah to reform policies towards women.

One element of this media storm is being driven by Sue Tibballs, chief executive of the Women’s Sport and Fitness Foundation. Tibballs, amongst others, is calling for the International Olympic Committee to ban the Saudi delegation from attending London2012, as a consequence for their discriminatory decision. Given that Saudi Arabia have directly violated the Olympic Charter (which states that "any form of discrimination with regard to a country or a person on grounds of race, religion, politics, sex or otherwise is incompatible with belonging to the Olympic Movement") there are strong grounds for Tibballs' call. At times Saudi Arabia can be quite sensitive to negative press in the west, given the proximity of the House of Saud with almost all western governments. The optimist in me hopes that this recent negative press will force the Saud's to rethink their policies towards women.

That said, the pessimist in me thinks that after a few days of negative press the media will move on, effectively letting Prince Nawaf off the hook. I very much doubt that the International Olympic Committee will ban Saudi Arabia from London2012. Jaques Rogge risks some angry calls from European leaders if he upsets Saudi Arabia too much. The last thing David Cameron wants is another potential fuel crisis, and nor I suspect to his European counterparts. Sadly, I suspect the Saudi Olympic team will be allowed to proceed with their "only men allowed" policy.

A short-lived romance

al-Maliki

Yesterday, Middle East Online reported that the Saudi media has launched a scathing attack against the Iraqi prime minister, Nouri al-Malaki, following al-Malaiki's implicit criticism of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states decision to pay salaries to the Syrian National Council.

The Saudi media response to al-Malaki's implicit criticisms was immediate and left no room for ambiguity. Tariq al-Homayed, the editor of Saudi owned الشرق الاوسط‎ (Asharq al-Awsat) wrote: "Gulf (states) should boycott Maliki and his government [...] to prevent the emergence of a new Saddam or another Bashar."

King Abdullah of Saudi

The comparison to Bashar al-Asad is an obvious one, with both al-Malaki and al-Asad being Shia leaders, which makes them an easily paired together by the Sunni Saudi media. It is the comparison between al-Maliki and Saddam Hussein which is a lot more interesting, and arguably deeply personal against al-Maliki. Iraq under Sunni Saddam Hussein bore witness to several episodes of extreme cruelty against the country's Shias. Shia Al-Maliki will not appreciate the Saudi media's efforts to liken him to Saddam Hussein, a former persecutor of Iraqi Shias. 

This media mud-slinging episode speaks volumes about one thing: it appears that the romance period between Saudi Arabia and Iraq, symbolised by Saudi Arabia's recent appointment of its first diplomatic representative to Iraq since the Gulf war of 1991, may be coming to a hasty end. 

Of course, I may be wrong. This could be nothing more than a temporary spat in a soon to be budding but unlikely friendship. But I don't think I am wrong. For as long as there is a Shia hand at the helm of Iraq, I suspect the recent period of improved relations between Iraq and Saudi Arabia may prove to be nothing more than a short-lived romance.