A fresh perspective on Bahrain

Last week I had dinner with a friend who has just ended a five year work placement in Bahrain. During our dinner the conversation turned to Bahrain and its future. I hold my friend's opinions in the highest regard, so I was particularly interested to hear his thoughts on the future of Bahrain. He certainly provided me with a fresh perspective on the future of the island.

At a high-level, my friend made me realise that my stand point, which is also the "traditional" line of argument (Iran meddles in Bahrain, Saudi meddles in Bahrain, Bahrain = satellite battle ground for the Iran and Saudi power struggle) may be out of date. In the past I have argued that Saudi will do everything in its power to prevent the Bahraini Shia majority from usurping power from the Sunni ruling family and government. Saudi has a small concentration of Shia residing in the eastern province and with a Shia government in power just across the causeway into Bahrain (see photo below), the Saudi Shia population could be mobilised against King Abdullah in Saudi Arabia.



The King Fahd Causeway links Bahrain to Saudi Arabia


Would this really happen in reality? My friend argues not. He believes that Saudi is much more in favour of a politically stable Bahrain. Yes, a Sunni government would be preferable to a Shia leadership but the current, weak Sunni al-Khalifa rulers are not at all preferable.

The next question we discussed over dinner was to what extent the Bahraini Shia population is really supported by Iran. I have previously argued that Iran is surely meddling on the ground in Bahrain, but my friend challenged me on this. He argues that the Iranians are almost certainly not arming the Shia in Bahrain as the Gulf is tightly patrolled for shipping traffic coming from Iran and there is no other route to Bahrain. It seems the only direct route from Iran to Bahrain is via satellite television. Bahraini Shia all watch Iranian television so there is at least some scope for Ahmaninejad to transmit rabble rousing messages to Bahrain. Whilst this shouldn't be underestimated, it should also not be assigned the same impact as the intricate, armed Iranian spy network that some believe operates in Bahrain.

The other question we discussed was the impact of a Shia uprising in Bahrain on the Saudi Shia population. My friend's point here was simple. Saudi Shia comprise a little over 10% of Saudis population and they are all located in one place. Should they be rabble-roused by a future Shia leadership in Bahrain, it is unlikely that King Abdullah would not be able to control this. He would also receive international support if it looked as if Saudi was losing control.

As I listened with great interest to my friend's fresh perspective on Bahrain I came to a new conclusion, a conclusion with which my friend also agreed: in the event of Bahrain's Shia taking control of the small island and ousting the al-Khalifas King Abdullah would be best advised to travel across the causeway to greet the leaders as friends and neighbours. Such an act would surely take the wind out of Ahmadinejad's sails!?

I particularly enjoyed hearing Bahrain's story from a different angle. What are your thoughts on this fresh perspective on Bahrain?