Ayatollah Sheikh Isa Ahmed Qassim |
Given the drawn out tensions in Bahrain, the Ayatollah is definitely a name to watch. I should clarify that I do not believe he is one to watch as a potential future leader in Bahrain, as the al-Wefaq party is the "official" opposition which means their existence is sanctioned by the ruling party - they will never be be afforded enough power or influence to actually be voted into power! What's more, the Ayatollah is not the official leader of the party. That title falls to Sheikh Ali Salman. Qassim is the spiritual leader.
That said, it is widely believed that, behind closed doors, it is the Ayatollah who calls the shots, and that Salman is merely a public face. Certainly the international community are more concerned about the Ayatollah rather than Salman. Throughout the uprisings that took place (and continue to do so periodically) in Bahrain, the US expressed public concern that the Ayatollah was developing stronger and stronger ties with Iran. This is undoubtedly true. Iran has a vested interest in supporting the Bahraini Shia opposition. Doing so via the Ayatollah, a spiritual ally, is an obvious route.
2013 is a crucial year for Bahrain. The currently sporadic violence will either escalate, with sectarian tensions in a crescendo, or the government will learn to live with, rather than on top of the small island's Shia population. Whatever the outcome, Ayatollah Sheikh Isa Ahmed Qassim will quietly lead the Shia way.
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