Happy First Birthday

Today is Arabian Peninsula Focus' first birthday.

On the 27th December 2011 I opened with Welcome to Arabian Peninsula Focus and since then have posted 75 times on topics ranging from Yemen's new president, Saudi Arabia allowing women to compete in the Olympic Games and the fact there is almost nothing to say about Oman!

Sometimes life throws you curve balls, and I had a couple of these this year during which time the frequency of blog posts suffered a little. Still, I'm pleased to say that one year on after 5000 hits during 2012 we are blogging strong and look forward to a blog-post filled 2013.

So what's in store for the Arabian Peninsula during 2013? I would love to say that I have a set of firm predictions but that would be somewhat untrue. That said, how cowardly of me to refuse to stick my neck out at all!! Never one to shy away from a challenge I will have a go at some predictions:

1. Bahrain - sadly I think Bahrain's turbulent times are not over. This month we have seen the backlash begin following the government's attempts to stifle the voice of the opposition through banning public demonstrations. I predict this backlash will gain momentum as we move into 2013.

2. Yemen - after a very rocky start to his presidency, I think Yemen's new leader President Hadi will continue to gain control. I predict more positive times ahead for the nearly-failed state.

3. Saudi Arabia - nothing happens quickly in this place. I predict more of the same, with the occasional minor flurry of activity.

4. Oman - I suspect the grumblings of discontent will not be entirely silenced as we go into 2013. That said I don't think we will witness the toppling of the mostly popular Sultan, and I will continue to struggle to find things to write about Oman.

5. Qatar - the small Gulf state will progress their attempts at world domination, and will continue to struggle with the balance between being protector of the Palestinians and confidante of Capitol Hill.

6. UAE and Kuwait - who knows!

So thanks to all those who have read my blog during 2012. Stay with me in 2013, and feel free to encourage others to have a read!

Happy New Year to you all.

Heroic Hadi's military might

Finally some good news from Yemen! After months and months of military struggles between al-Qaeda factions and Yemen's army it looked like President Hadi had lost his grip since taking control from long-time despot Saleh. 

It's good to see Hadi flexing his military muscle

Yesterday news reports came from Yemen that Hadi's radical reforms of Yemen's army have been met with widespread displays of support. By undertaking these reforms Hadi has dismantled army units loyal to former President Saleh. It is heartening to see the country's new president show some military might. By ousting former Saleh loyalists we can now hope that Hadi will get a stronger handle on the army which is vital if he is going to bring the country out of this prolonged period of upheaval. 

Hadi, this is a good start. Keep up the good work. 

Grumblings in Oman

In the past I have commented how rarely news stories concerning Oman appear in the international press. Today I was very surprised to read on GulfNews.com that several Omani activists are awaiting a trial hearing after criticising Sultan Qaboos on blogs and social media sites, a direct violation of the country's cyber laws. The activists' arrest has subsequently provoked some minor public demonstrations.

It is important to put these demonstrations into perspective. I do not predict that we are witnessing Oman's entrance into the "Arab Spring" (a term which I despise for simplifying the complex reasons behind the concurrent uprisings that took place, and continue to take place, throughout the Middle East - anyone who tries to claim that the crisis in Syria is a "spring" of any sort is quite mad). That said, I do think it's important we don't dismiss these demonstrations in Oman as a "one off" incident in what is otherwise an oasis of democratic harmony.

Sultan Qaboos has kept his chosen successor a secret

Sultan Qaboos is an absolute ruler, and whilst he is one of the Middle East's most popular leaders he still relies on oppressive laws to assist his absolute leadership. It is therefore unsurprising that such laws are challenged from time to time.

Rather than being concerned about Oman and the "Arab Spring" I do think these current demonstrations should act as a warning to the aged Sultan that his succession may not be as smooth a process as he hopes. There is clearly a level of discontent bubbling under the apparent Omani serenity, and never is discontent magnified as much as during a change in leadership. The Sultan should mitigate some of this risk by being open about his chosen successor, rather than continuing with his current policy of secrecy. Such a secretive approach when there are grumblings of discontent is both delusional and irresponsible. So come on Qaboos, tell us all what we really want to know...who's next?!

Bahrain: And so the backlash begins

Sometimes it's satisfying to say "I told you so", although when the context is sectarian violence such satisfaction is bitter-sweet. On 2 November I wrote a post entitled Bahrain...beware of a backlash in response to new Bahraini legislation banning protests and gatherings. The concluding paragraph read:

 

"Before this ban on protests and gatherings, Bahrain's Shias felt they lacked a voice and representation hence why they started to demonstrate. Preventing them from demonstrating may result in a short-term period of calm, but under the surface the pressure cooker will reach explosion-point. This decision should be reversed. If not, the Bahraini government should beware of the almost-certain backlash."

 

Today I found the following headline in the Montreal Gazette:

 

"Bahrain protesters face tear gas as marches move into capital".

 



Vehicles are set alight by anti-government protesters in Bahrain



And so the backlash begins.

 

The most frustrating thing about the current situation, where different groups of Shia protesters are risking life and limb to stage protests in Manama, is that it was entirely predictable. By passing the law banning protests and gatherings the Bahraini government has fuelled the flames of the country's disgruntled Shia rather than extinguishing the voice of opposition. The ruling party was simply naive to think the latter would ever be a consequence of the ban.

 

Bahrain's Shias want to be heard, not silenced. Until they believe their voice is heard, the protests will continue, the tear gas will be thrown and the subsequent backlash will be stronger than the one before.

 

Come on Bahrain! You have failed to silence the opposition through violence and forced legislation. Start listening before more lives are lost.

Things have khat out of control in Yemen

Today I found a new source of blog inspiration: The Alaska Dispatch. A big thank you to Sarah Palin's local news service for running a Yemen story that doesn't feature al-Qaeda. Instead, the Alaska Dispatch article subject, and the subject of this blog post is Khat, aka Qat or Gat.

Khat is a mildly narcotic plant. Yemenis purchase branches of Khat leaves on a daily basis and throughout the course of an afternoon pull the leaves from the stem one by one, chew each leaf lightly (enough to break the leaf's surface but not enough to split the leaf fully in two) before storing the leaf in their cheek. Little by little a golf-ball sized collection of Khat leaves begins to form in the cheek of the chewer. The chewer will continue to add leaves and increase the size of the ball until their cheek has reached it's stretch limit (or until they have had enough, although when I was in Yemen it seemed this coincided with the cheek's stretch limit!). The chewer then sits with this large clump of slightly mashed khat leaves stored in their cheek (as demonstrated  by the unknown man in the image on the right) before removing the clump, binning it and heading to bed. When I was in Yemen in 2007 I observed that khat chewing usually started around 1500hrs and finished late on into the evening.

Khat sounds harmless enough. Its narcotic effect is mild and it's not officially classified as a drug. Rumour has it that Yemenia, Yemen's national airline, used to serve it to passengers. During a visit to Yemen in 2007 I tried khat on two occasions: the first time I bit too hard, split the leaves into multiple pieces and swallowed the lot, a beginners error which my digestive system particularly regretted the following day. On the second occasion I successfully stored the leaves in my cheek like the man in the picture with the only notable side effects being mild insomnia juxtaposed with slight lethargy and a very sore cheek.

But khat has more sinister, non-biological side effects. Daily khat chewing reduces productivity amongst what should be the country's active working population. Khat chewing is a social custom and workforce output levels reduce dramatically once the khat leaves are brought out mid afternoon. On top of this, good quality khat comes at a premium and Yemeni families often spend more money each week on khat than they do on food.

The final negative impact of khat is discussed in the Alaska Dispatch article that inspired this blog post. Yemen is currently experiencing water shortages. Khat growing not only takes up valuable arable land but is also a thirsty crop and is estimated to consume 40% of the country's water resources. Due to its premium price, more and more farmers are converting their land to khat growing, sacrificing increasingly valuable fruit and vegetable production which is subsequently causing rising food costs. As a non-chewing outsider, it is clear that this khat obsession needs to be tempered.

I recently read about a twitter campaign to wean Yemen off this leaf. A short summary says the campaign has not made much progress. In short, it seems leaf chewing has khat out of control (excuse this lame quasi-pun!). But seriously, if the country really is bent on removing al-Qaeda from its midst I doubt it will do it whilst high on a mild narcotic leaf.

If Yemen is to move into the future, I think it's time to leave the khat leaf in the past.

Bahrain...beware of a backlash

Today I stumbled upon an article on the Al-Jazeera website which concerned me: Bahrain bans protests and gatherings. This headline speaks for itself but the article's first paragraph also provides a useful summary: "Bahrain has imposed a ban on all protest gatherings and is threatening legal action against groups considered backing escalating demonstrations and clashes". The Bahraini government maintains that this is not "an outright ban" on political demonstrations, but rather an opportunity for the country to re-group and regain its strength from a national security perspective after months of Shia-led demonstrations against the country's Sunni leadership.

Banning protests and gatherings is a bold step. Arguably maintaining control in a country torn by sectarianism requires a firm hand...but not like this. In my view, this action is a defensive knee-jerk retaliation from a Sunni government who feels it is losing control rather than a considered response from an authority confident in its ability to maintain order in a complex sectarian environment. The Bahraini government needs to realise that its future success lies not in suppressing the opposition, but in forging a meaningful, sustainable partnership.

Before this ban on protests and gatherings, Bahrain's Shias felt they lacked a voice and representation hence why they started to demonstrate. Preventing them from demonstrating may result in a short-term period of calm, but under the surface the pressure cooker will reach explosion-point. This decision should be reversed. If not, the Bahraini government should beware of the almost-certain backlash.

Can Qatar be friends with everyone?

Qatar's Sheikh Hamad during his visit to Gaza

Today the BBC reported on the Qatari Emir's controversial visit to the Gaza Strip. Qatar's leader, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, visited a number of sites in Gaza and used the visit to call for unity between the geographically and politically divided Palestinian territories of the West Bank and Gaza. 

Unsurprisingly the Emir's visit was not seen as positive by all. Fatah, the political party recognised by the international community as the official representatives of the Palestinian people, seemed affronted that the Qatari Emir chose to visit Gaza, the HQ of Fatah's rival party Hamas. (Hamas is viewed as a terrorist organisation by many western governments despite receiving a majority vote in the last Palestinian election). Israel were also angry, accusing Qatar's Emir of throwing "peace under a bus" by visiting Gaza.

In some respects Qatar's bold step deserves credit. I have previously criticised certain countries from the Arabian Peninsula for vociferously pledging support to fellow Arab countries in need whilst failing to legitimise their words with solid action. In this instance Qatar has pledged to provide £250million to support building projects in Gaza, already acts as a beneficiary to Hamas and has taken this latest bold step of visiting Gaza.

In other respects Qatar may have taken a step too far by sending the Emir into Gaza. As mentioned above Hamas is widely viewed as a terrorist organisation rather than a legitimate political party. The Emir should think carefully before aligning to such a party, especially given his previous efforts to woo the west. I wonder how long the Emir of Qatar can sustain hosting rubbing shoulders with international organisations such as the IOC whilst simultaneously building a new Hamas HQ. 

If Mitt beats Barak in a fortnight's time things could get even trickier for Qatar and its attempts to be friends with everyone.