Where next for Yemen.

Today I came across a photo-feature in the the New York Times which tells a troubling story of Yemen. Entitled Where next for Yemen, the journalist expresses concern that over the last two years since Saleh was replaced by Hadi very little has changed. The capital Sana'a just about functions, but the areas outside the city are riddled with sectarianism from a plethora of different varied forces. 

Presidents past and present, but Saleh is still stealing the limelight

Earlier this week Yemen featured in the international press as the UN threatened former president Saleh with sanctions if he continues to meddle in the country's affairs through his network of proxies, built up over the course of his thirty year premiership. Meanwhile, President Hadi is branded as a shy man, notable in his absence from public life. 

This is a troubling situation. The optimists speak favourably of the transition of power in Yemen, contrasting Saleh's step down to Asad's current course of self-destruction in Syria (not to mention the destruction of the country and its people). Meanwhile the realists are rightfully concerned. 

Yemen is an historically complex tribal patchwork. When I visited the country in 2007 supporters of Saleh spoke favourably of his ability to stitch the patchwork into a quilt that functioned, almost to a level acceptable in the developed world. 

Whilst I am always pleased to see the end to a despot's rule, I am worried that Saleh's skills of uniting the tribal leaders have not been passed on to Hadi. What's more, I believe that Hadi's lack of skills in this area is exacerbated by his allies in the "developed" world who are attempting to encourage "western-acceptable" democracy.  What the country really needs is a leader who can broker tribal cooperation. 

The sooner we realise this the better. Hadi needs to be left to govern Yemen in a way fit for the unique foundations of the country. I fear that the longer the current path continues, the slimmer the chance of this happening. 

Don't let the sun go down on Saudi

Today I stumbled upon an article about Saudi Arabia which produced a little flutter of excitement in me. Mildly progressive policy towards women aside, this does not happen very often when reading news about the Kingdom. So what is this wonderful and exciting development, I hear you say? The answer: a headline on the website of United Press International which reads: Sign of the times: Saudi goes solar. The article reports that "Saudi Arabia, the world's leading oil producer, has completed its biggest solar power plant as the Persian Gulf petro-powers increasingly turn to solar energy and other renewables".

The Saudi empty quarter - lots of sand and sun

Actually, on second thoughts, let me replace my previous excitement with a sigh of aah - finally! I have often worried about Saudi Arabia's forward planning. With a quarter of the world's known oil reserves under their sand and soil it still amazes me that the Saud's do not boast the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world. Instead this accolade passes between far more canny states, including Abu Dhabi, a close neighbour and sometime topic of this blog. 

Now is not the time to go into the reasons for Saudi's lack of saved sovereign wealth (this has got me thinking that I should post about Saudi Arabia and the concept of a Rentier State). But I will say how nice it is to see Riyadh taking steps to plan for the future! Saudi Arabia plays host to the largest sand desert in the world (see picture for an idea of what a lot of sand looks like), known as الربع الخالي‎ or A-rub al-Khali, or The Empty Quarter - approximately 650,000 sq kms of sand, with an awful lot of annual sunlight, and tremendous potential as a powerful source of solar energy. 

As Saudi Arabia has made a conscious decision to ignore all history prior to the advent of Islam in AD 622, there is little post-Islamic history in the Empty Quarter which will be damaged by some solar farms. I for one would like to see Saudi Arabia become a hub for renewable energy. The optimist in me hopes that if the country is involved in progressive and modern energy policy, this could infiltrate the archaic politics of this extraordinary Kingdom. So, to paraphrase the great Sir Elton: don't let the sun go down on Saudi.

Another year passes

February 14 2013 marks the 2 year anniversary of the start of the uprisings in Bahrain. Unsurprisingly, the lead up to the anniversary has featured a series of public demonstrations, in spite of current "legislation" banning public protests. Of course, it comes as no surprise that the legislation designed to drive Bahrain's Shia opposition from the streets has failed. The only realistic way to enforce such a law would have been to round up all the country's politically active Shia and lock them up - a ridiculous idea, although I'm sure the thought has crossed the government's mind. 

In fact, not only has the anti-demonstration legislation failed, but the al-Khalifa's seem to be left with no alternative but to admit that it has failed, by organising talks, currently taking place, between the Sunni leadership and the various factions which make up the Shia opposition. Such a contrast between the quasi-despotic legislation and the practises being undertaken by the authors of the law hardly presents the al-Khalifas as strong in the face of two years of open opposition and protest. 

If I were to take my "old" line of argument I would say that continued protests are now a serious cause for concern to both the al-Khalifas and the House of Saud, and almost certainly due to Iran's masterful puppetry. 

Bahrain's King looks justifiably concerned

I now don't think the above statement is true. Allow me, momentarily, to second-guess King Abdullah's thoughts and I'd say that he's probably just as fed up with the al-Khalifas' inadequacies as we are and that he probably wouldn't be averse to regime change, so long as it happens in an orderly manner. Yes, such a change in regime may cause a stir among Saudi's Shia ranks, but nothing that couldn't be controlled. 

Now, if we sail across to the other side of the Gulf, to Iran, I wonder if Ahmadinejad is as hung up about Bahrain as the international press would have us believe. As one source told me, Iran is not bringing arms into Bahrain so their only constant source of influence is over the television transmissions which reach Bahrain from Iran.

So with Saudi and Iran arguably not as interested in Bahrain as I had previously thought, what can we conclude about the Bahrain uprising's winners and losers 2 years on? I'd say that the real loser here is Bahrain's ruling al-Khalifa family who, as another year passes, have taken to yo-yoing policies of desperation to maintain control. We should watch the next year very closely. 

AQAP...WTF

First of all, apologies for the radio silence. I have been busy getting my head around a new job so rather lost momentum with blog posts. Last month was a great month for Arabian Peninsula Focus, with our best ever day of hits (87 in one day!). Thanks to all those who have a read every now and then.

So what is today's post about? Well, it is inspired by a France24 news article entitled "Drone kills top Qaeda cleric in Yemen". The article details a drone attack which killed Sheikh Adel al-Abab, al-Qaeda's top cleric in the Arabian Peninsula. The drone attack almost failed, with a second shot required to dispose of the cleric as he escaped from his burning car.   

A while back I wrote about the increasing role of US-controlled drones in Yemen. It seems that the frequency of these attacks remains high. What can we read into this? At a high level it suggests the following:

- President Hadi, despite his successes in certain areas of Yemeni administration, is struggling to dampen the influence of al-Qaeda in Yemen. 

- The USA remains increasingly concerned about the lack of internal ministry control in Yemen and the free-ride this provides to al-Qaeda network members to grow in strength. 

I cannot see Hadi winning the flight against the terrorist network on his own and therefore predict continued swarms of US-controlled drone attacks in the almost failed state. 

As a brief closing note, I have to say that I found myself chuckling at an acronym which cropped up throughout the France 24 article: AQAP (al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula). Although this may sound catchy, it is in fact completely superfluous as an acronym - one might say an acronym for acronym's sake! 

If Bin Laden is seen as the founder of Al-Qaeda and we accept that Bin Laden was Yemeni/Saudi then hasn't it always been an Arabian Peninsula-based network that then spread further afield? I guess that we are now in the Acronym era of uncontrolled abbreviations. TLAs (which stands for three letter acronym for those unfamiliar with this acronymous acronym) have clearly been exhausted. Bring on the FLA era! 

In the spirit of fighting fire with fire, there is only one correct response to AQAP: WTF! 

The donor conference is underway

Just a short post today as I wrote a longer-than-usual post yesterday on the future of Bahrain.

Some of you may have read a post earlier this month (Kuwait leads action against Asad) about Kuwait hosting a donor conference to secure aid for Syrian refugees. Today I read a Financial Times article reporting on the conference which is now underway. Entitled Donors pledge more aid to Syria, the article reports that the summit has so far resulted in $600million from Kuwait and the UAE, and a further $300million from Saudi Arabia.

I hope that these will not be the only financial aid commitments from the Arabian Peninsula countries over the coming days. For once, I think competition amongst the countries of the Arabian Peninsula for recognition as THE Pan-Arab leader may be a good thing as aid pledges from once country in the region could be met with higher pledges from surrounding states, eager to be seen as Pan-Arab supporters. I do hope I'm right as the UN report that up to $1.5billion is required to support the 750,000 refugees and 4 million Syrians still in the country.

On the one hand, it is good to see Kuwait make good on its promise to organise a donor conference, and indeed, even better to see that the conference seems to be generating the desired results. That said, the FT journalist does raise a serious concern that the aid, once pledged, is taking way too long to arrive on the front line where it is most required. This is clearly the next challenge. So come on countries of the Arabian Peninsula...if one of you really wants to be seen as a Pan-Arab leader then step up and start helping with the complicated task of dishing out the millions of dollars you can so easily afford to pledge.

A fresh perspective on Bahrain

Last week I had dinner with a friend who has just ended a five year work placement in Bahrain. During our dinner the conversation turned to Bahrain and its future. I hold my friend's opinions in the highest regard, so I was particularly interested to hear his thoughts on the future of Bahrain. He certainly provided me with a fresh perspective on the future of the island.

At a high-level, my friend made me realise that my stand point, which is also the "traditional" line of argument (Iran meddles in Bahrain, Saudi meddles in Bahrain, Bahrain = satellite battle ground for the Iran and Saudi power struggle) may be out of date. In the past I have argued that Saudi will do everything in its power to prevent the Bahraini Shia majority from usurping power from the Sunni ruling family and government. Saudi has a small concentration of Shia residing in the eastern province and with a Shia government in power just across the causeway into Bahrain (see photo below), the Saudi Shia population could be mobilised against King Abdullah in Saudi Arabia.



The King Fahd Causeway links Bahrain to Saudi Arabia


Would this really happen in reality? My friend argues not. He believes that Saudi is much more in favour of a politically stable Bahrain. Yes, a Sunni government would be preferable to a Shia leadership but the current, weak Sunni al-Khalifa rulers are not at all preferable.

The next question we discussed over dinner was to what extent the Bahraini Shia population is really supported by Iran. I have previously argued that Iran is surely meddling on the ground in Bahrain, but my friend challenged me on this. He argues that the Iranians are almost certainly not arming the Shia in Bahrain as the Gulf is tightly patrolled for shipping traffic coming from Iran and there is no other route to Bahrain. It seems the only direct route from Iran to Bahrain is via satellite television. Bahraini Shia all watch Iranian television so there is at least some scope for Ahmaninejad to transmit rabble rousing messages to Bahrain. Whilst this shouldn't be underestimated, it should also not be assigned the same impact as the intricate, armed Iranian spy network that some believe operates in Bahrain.

The other question we discussed was the impact of a Shia uprising in Bahrain on the Saudi Shia population. My friend's point here was simple. Saudi Shia comprise a little over 10% of Saudis population and they are all located in one place. Should they be rabble-roused by a future Shia leadership in Bahrain, it is unlikely that King Abdullah would not be able to control this. He would also receive international support if it looked as if Saudi was losing control.

As I listened with great interest to my friend's fresh perspective on Bahrain I came to a new conclusion, a conclusion with which my friend also agreed: in the event of Bahrain's Shia taking control of the small island and ousting the al-Khalifas King Abdullah would be best advised to travel across the causeway to greet the leaders as friends and neighbours. Such an act would surely take the wind out of Ahmadinejad's sails!?

I particularly enjoyed hearing Bahrain's story from a different angle. What are your thoughts on this fresh perspective on Bahrain?

Oman: as perfect as the travel brochures suggest?

As some of you may know I often make light of the fact that Oman rarely appears on the pages and websites of the international press. I thought today was no exception. The first couple of headlines I read were about the lack of potential parking issues at a Muscat amphitheatre (fascinating - really).

Then I came across a headline which read: Oman seeks to cut expat workforce. This made me stop and have a read.

The article reports that Oman could soon adopt a similar path to Saudi Arabia, and introduce limits to the number of expat employees hired by sector companies. (On a point of information, this is not strictly true - Saudi Arabia has actually introduced a far more complex system, which rewards private sector companies who employ x number of local employees by making it significantly easier to gain visas for expat workers).

On the one hand you may ask why this is significant news. Well, my response is to ask why the Sultan of Oman feels it is necessary to take the step of reducing the number of expat workers, currently dominating the country's private sector. The obvious answer is that there is a growing problem with unemployment. Some stats I have found support this, with the International Monetary Fund stating that up to 20% of the population is unemployed, which has led to street protests. I have read nothing of these street protests during my almost daily checks on news from the Arabian Peninsula, which leads onto further questions about the strict levels to which important news is kept out of the headlines. It seems the Omani press sensors have been busy.

I will now scour Omani news even more closely than before...I suspect all may not be as rosy as the travel brochures would have us believe.

Abdullah the reformer strikes again

King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia continues to confirm my hopes that he is a reformer at heart. Today, whilst looking through the online news pages I stumbled upon a headline which made me smile broadly: Saudi Arabia's Timid Flirtation With Women's Rights. The article reports that today Saudi Arabia made history by naming 30 women to the Shura Council (the closest body Saudi Arabia has to a parliament). What is more, new laws mandate that from now on women must make up at least 20% of the 150-200 person council.


Saudi Arabia's Shura Council meets for the first time with

women members

I don't usually critique the headlines that inspire my articles but I do believe the journalist behind this headline has been a little harsh on King Abdullah. This is the second landmark decision in favour of women's rights to come out of the Kingdom in the last 6 months, the first being the decision to allow women to participate in London 2012.

Both the olympics decision and this recent development at the Shura Council marks exponential improvements in policies towards women in the Kingdom. When evaluating King Abdullah in the context of women's rights one has to be aware of the current baseline, and the sometimes vehement opposition to change which in many ways defines Saudi Arabia. Allowing women to join the Shura Council is more than a "timid flirtation" with reforms for women. I believe it is part of a steady effort to implement sustainable change for the better. Bold reforms in Saudi will cause bold backlashes. Gradual change is by far the best policy in a country with many citizens who believe in striving to combat change in favour of living as they did during the golden age of Islam (622 - 632 AD).

My conclusion is simple. This is good news for Saudi Arabia, but there is obviously a long way to go. Some of you will remember the article I posted recently about arranged marriages in the Kingdom and the need to implement reforms in this area. Nonetheless, I will now watch with tempered excitement as to where this latest development could lead, both in terms of other changes up the King's sleeve and the potential knock on effects of opening up further public administration roles for women.

Introducing...Ayatollah Sheikh Isa Ahmed Qassim



Ayatollah Sheikh Isa Ahmed Qassim

 Today's post is the second "introducing..." feature on Arabian Peninsula Focus. Moving away from Saudi Arabia, today's subject is Ayatollah Sheikh Isa Ahmed Qassim. The Ayatollah is the spiritual leader of the al-Wafeq party in Bahrain, which is the official opposition party on the small island. al-Wefaq is a Shia party and both the party and the Ayatollah have been supporters of those rising up against the Sunni government.

Given the drawn out tensions in Bahrain, the Ayatollah is definitely a name to watch. I should clarify that I do not believe he is one to watch as a potential future leader in Bahrain, as the al-Wefaq party is the "official" opposition which means their existence is sanctioned by the ruling party - they will never be be afforded enough power or influence to actually be voted into power! What's more, the Ayatollah is not the official leader of the party. That title falls to Sheikh Ali Salman. Qassim is the spiritual leader.

That said, it is widely believed that, behind closed doors, it is the Ayatollah who calls the shots, and that Salman is merely a public face. Certainly the international community are more concerned about the Ayatollah rather than Salman. Throughout the uprisings that took place (and continue to do so periodically) in Bahrain, the US expressed public concern that the Ayatollah was developing stronger and stronger ties with Iran. This is undoubtedly true. Iran has a vested interest in supporting the Bahraini Shia opposition. Doing so via the Ayatollah, a spiritual ally, is an obvious route.

2013 is a crucial year for Bahrain. The currently sporadic violence will either escalate, with sectarian tensions in a crescendo, or the government will learn to live with, rather than on top of the small island's Shia population. Whatever the outcome, Ayatollah Sheikh Isa Ahmed Qassim will quietly lead the Shia way. 

Today's 3...Donors, Meddlers and Builders

Donors

The Jerusalem Post reports that Saudi Arabia will donate $10 billion to Jordan to help manage the ever-increasing number of Syrian refugees spilling into the Hashemite Kingdom. My cynical side wonders if this is a response to Kuwait's Syrian Donor conference due to take place in Kuwait City later this month. That said, whatever Saudi's motivation, it is great to see more affirmative action in support of the innocent Syrians caught in Asad's cross-fire.

Meddlers

An article on the Yahoo News blog reports that US ambassador to Yemen, Gerald Feierstein has accused Iran of stirring disruption in Yemen by supporting southern separatists in the fractured country. This is not the first time that Iran has acted as a catalyst to disruption in the countries of the Arabian Peninsula, especially those which border Saudi Arabia. If the ambassador's assertions are correct, this is another example of Iran unsettling a nation that borders Saudi Arabia. Iran's motivations are pretty easy to second-guess: by provoking disruption in countries like Yemen and Bahrain Iran hopes the spats of violence will spill over the border into Saudi, threatening the House of Saud. The Iran-Saudi power struggle rumbles on.

Builders

Despite 2012 being a year of violent demonstrations in Bahrain, ArabBusiness.com reports that Bahrain's real estate transactions were up 46% last year. This is good news for the island kingdom which has seen some of its international business tenants relocate in favour of "more stable" regional hubs such as Doha, Abu Dhabi and Dubai. The article reports that there is still cause for concern, but is right to write with a little optimism that the real-estate market is moving again. If Bahrain's government starts listening to the Shia opposition, rather than attempting to silence them through archaic laws, 2013 may be a better year all round! 

Introducing...Haifaa al-Mansour

Haifa al-Mansour is Saudi Arabia's first and only film director

Welcome to our first "Introducing..." feature.

Continuing the theme of women in Saudi Arabia, I have chosen to introduce Haifaa al-Mansour, Saudi Arabia's first and only female film director.

Her portfolio of work includes three short films and one feature film Wadjda, the latter was both written and directed by al-Mansour. (Wadjda was funded and produced by the same production company behind other recent greats from the Middle East, including Waltz With Bashir and Paradise Now).

Whilst not intending to enter into the realm of Saudi gender inequality, growing up in the Kingdom has proved a powerful influence in al-Mansour's work. It would be a huge over-simplification to describe her work as a critique of Saudi policy and culture towards women, but her latest film clearly challenges the Kingdom's gender inequalities.

I find two things particularly striking about al-Mansour. First, her bravery. Since embarking upon a career in film she has received hate mail and is publicly despised amongst certain circles of Saudi society. Yet she remains undeterred and un-phased. In order for progress to be made in correcting Saudi's gender imbalance figure-heads are required, figure-heads who are prepared to continue undeterred in spite of the vehement opposition which will line their path. I believe al-Mansour deserves that 'figure head' accolade.

The second important aspect of al-Mansour's story is her parents. Cinemas are banned in Saudi Arabia, but al-Mansour's father, the poet Abdul Rahman Mansour, fuelled her interest in film by showing her videos whilst she was growing up. The director's parents then afforded her the freedom necessary to embark upon a career. Without such liberal parents I doubt very much we would have heard the name Haifaa al-Mansour. Instead of attending the 2012 Venice Film Festival as an acclaimed film director she could have been walking several paces behind a domineering father/husband/brother, dressed head to toe in black, her talents lost in repression.

Haifaa al-Mansour is another example of the gradual progress being made for women in Saudi Arabia. Her bravery should be commended and we should see her as a champion of gender equality in the Kingdom. But my biggest hope is that the more liberal leaders in Saudi see her as an example the potential talent incumbent in many Saudi women. It is up to these leaders to implement the necessary reforms to transform this potential into reality. Not may women in Saudi will have fathers as liberal as Abdul Rahman Mansour.

Introducing...Introducing

As you know, every now and then I like to trial some different styles of posts. Last year I introduced the "Today's 4" feature. As it's a new year, I thought it was an ideal time for a new feature. For 2013 I have come up with: "Introducing..."

The concept is simple. In my "Introducing..." posts I will write about influential people from the Arabian Peninsula countries. Some may be known to you already whilst others may not. In an ever-changing Middle East political landscape, it is vital we keep up to date with the key players.

I will of course continue with my standard post format, but these will be interspersed with some "Today's 4" and "Introducing..." features. If readers have any suggestions of influential people for the "Introducing..." feature then I'd be thrilled to hear these. Feedback and suggestions are always welcome!

So belated Happy New Year to you all, and hopefully you'll enjoy "Introducing..."

More reforms please, King Abdullah

Today I read a troubling article on the website of the International Business Times (IBT). The headline provides a good summary: "Saudi Arabia: 15 year old girl flees marriage to 90-year old man".

This instance is a classic example of a Saudi Arabian arranged marriage, which is entirely legal according to the country's current marriage laws. It was organised by the girl's parents who received a substantial dowry of $17,500 from the nonagenarian in exchange for their 15 year old daughter. Following the marriage ceremony the girl refused to enter the bridal room, barricading herself away from her husband before escaping back to her parents. The girl's husband is now threatening to sue her parents if his wife is not returned to him.

If only the arranged marriage of such a young girl were an isolated incident, not just in the Kingdom, but globally. According to the IBT article, 10 million girls under the age of 18 are married each year in the Kingdom, 1.5 million of whom are reported to be aged under 15 years old. I don't have the exact figures to hand but I'm sure Saudi Arabia is a significant contributor to these statistics.

Clearly intervention is needed, which is where I feel a flutter of optimism, for I do not wish to turn this article into a round of subjective Saudi-bashing. Some readers may remember that I wrote positively of the (albeit) late decision by King Abdullah to allow Saudi women to compete in the London 2012 Olympics. In recent years education for women has dramatically improved. Recently I learned that the Saudi Minister of Labor is experimenting with innovative policies to encourage more women into the workplace. Such policies include hosting open days for women's guardians so they can observe (and hopefully approve of) the conditions in which their wives/sisters/daughters would work if allowed to take a job. Yes, progress is slow. But progress is progress, and in the context of Saudi Arabia should be commended and encouraged rather than criticised for its slow pace.

Marriage seems to be untouched by these gradual but welcome reforms. I am in no doubt that King Abdullah is a reformer; precedent has shown this to be the case. So, King Abdullah, I think it's about time for some more reforms please, preferably starting with the Kingdom's archaic marriage laws.

Kuwait leads action against Assad

Yesterday I read on the Kuwait News Agency website that Kuwait plans to host a Donor's Meeting for those pledging financial support to Assad's opposition in Syria. According to Kuwait's state news agency France has praised HH the Emir of Kuwait for organising the conference which is designed to assist civilians caught up in the continued violence in Syria. As well as playing host, the Emir has also pledged to donate $20 million to the Syrian Opposition Coalition and the Free Syrian Army .

HH the Emir of Kuwait, Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah 

Any help to Syrian civilians during this dreadful violence should be commended, as should Kuwait's attempts to coordinate collective efforts of regional Middle East donors. Previously in this bog I have criticised the wealthy Gulf States for responding to the Syrian crisis with powerful rhetoric but a distinct lack of action. I have also criticised the coutrnies' of the Arabian Peninsula for showing little ability to work together.

Kuwait's forthcoming conference shows evidence of both affirmative action and Pan-Arab teamwork in assisting those caught up in the Assad's shameful actions. HH the Emir deserves the praise he has received thus far from the international community. Let's hope that the funds reach the Syrian civilians before too long and that they can go some way to improving the dire situation of these people.